DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086076
论文题名: Future Reductions in Polar Cold Air Mass and Cold Air Outbreaks Revealed From Isentropic Analysis
作者: Kanno Y. ; Iwasaki T.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 948276
出版年: 2020
卷: 47, 期: 3 语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; cold air outbreak
; isentropic analysis
; meridional circulation
; polar cold air mass
; polar region
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Cold air mass
; Cold air outbreak
; Isentropic analysis
; Meridional circulation
; Polar Regions
; Climate change
; air mass
; climate change
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; cold air
; isotopic analysis
; meridional circulation
; Northern Hemisphere
; polar region
; potential temperature
; Southern Hemisphere
; temperature effect
英文摘要: This study quantifies future changes in the polar cold air mass (PCAM) below a threshold potential temperature of 280 K and its horizontal fluxes, which are an indicator for the intensity of cold air outbreaks, by analyzing the outputs from five climate models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the multimodel means of the wintertime total hemispheric PCAM decrease by 37% in the Northern Hemisphere and by 34% in the Southern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century. The midlatitude equatorward PCAM fluxes are projected to decrease significantly by around 2050. This is primarily due to the reduction of the PCAM and to a lesser extent due to the weakening of the extratropical meridional circulation. Finally, intermodel differences in the total hemispheric PCAM reduction are shown to be linearly related to the climate sensitivity to the global mean surface air temperature. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159264
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; Department of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Kanno Y.,Iwasaki T.. Future Reductions in Polar Cold Air Mass and Cold Air Outbreaks Revealed From Isentropic Analysis[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020-01-01,47(3)