DOI: 10.1029/2019JD031849
论文题名: The Impact of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone
作者: Fleming E.L. ; Newman P.A. ; Liang Q. ; Daniel J.S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2020
卷: 125, 期: 3 语种: 英语
英文关键词: CFC-11 emissions
; greenhouse gas scenarios
; ozone depletion
; stratospheric ozone
Scopus关键词: atmospheric pollution
; carbon emission
; CFC
; chlorine
; environmental impact
; greenhouse gas
; Montreal Protocol
; ozone depletion
; stratosphere
英文摘要: Trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11, CFCl3) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas, and its production and consumption are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, recent studies show that CFC-11 emissions have been near constant or increasing since 2002. In this study, we use a two-dimensional chemistry-climate model to investigate the stratospheric ozone response to a range of future CFC-11 emissions scenarios. A scenario with future emissions sustained at 10 gigagrams per year (Gg/year) above the baseline WMO (2018) A1 scenario results in minor additional global (90°S–90°N) ozone depletion of 0.13% by 2100, and a 1.5-year delay in the global ozone recovery to 1980 levels, relative to the baseline. A scenario with 72.5 Gg/year (the 2013–2016 average) sustained to 2100 results in a substantial 15% increase in effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine and nearly 1% additional global ozone depletion by 2100, with a 7.5-year delay in the recovery to 1980 global ozone levels, relative to the baseline. The ozone response averaged over time has a strong linear dependence on the cumulative amount of future CFC-11 emissions under a wide range of scenarios. The resulting ozone response sensitivity gives a simple metric relating the time-averaged ozone change to the cumulative CFC-11 emissions. This sensitivity has an inverse dependence on future greenhouse gas concentrations (CO2, CH4, and N2O). For the medium Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway-6.0 scenario, the sensitivity per 1,000 Gg of cumulative CFC-11 emissions is −0.1% and −1% for global and Antarctic spring ozone, respectively. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159267
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States; Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fleming E.L.,Newman P.A.,Liang Q.,et al. The Impact of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,2020-01-01,125(3)