DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab66ca
论文题名: Optimizing sowing window and cultivar choice can boost China's maize yield under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
作者: Huang M. ; Wang J. ; Wang B. ; Liu D.L. ; Yu Q. ; He D. ; Wang N. ; Pan X.
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 17489318
出版年: 2020
卷: 15, 期: 2 语种: 英语
英文关键词: adaptation potential
; APSIM
; climate change
; cultivar shift
; optimal sowing window
; potential sowing window
Scopus关键词: Belts
; Climate change
; Food supply
; Global warming
; adaptation potential
; Agricultural strategies
; APSIM
; Crop productivity
; Cropping systems
; cultivar shift
; Increased temperature
; Yield Improvement
; Grain (agricultural product)
; adaptive management
; agricultural production
; crop yield
; cultivar
; food security
; global warming
; growth response
; maize
; sowing
; temperature profile
; China
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Climate change, with increased temperatures and varied rainfall, poses a great challenge to food security around the world. Appropriately assessing the impacts of climate change on crop productivity and understanding the adaptation potential of agriculture to climate change are urgently needed to help develop effective strategies for future agriculture and to maintain food security. In this study, we studied future maize yield changes under 1.5 °C (2018-2037) and 2 °C (2044-2063) warming scenarios and investigated the adaptation potential across China's Maize Belt by optimizing the sowing date and cultivar using the APSIM-Maize model. In comparison to the baseline scenario, under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios, we found that without adaptation, maize yields would increase in the relatively cool regions with a single-cropping system but decrease in other regions. However, in comparison with the baseline scenario, under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios with adaptation, maize yields would increase by 11.1%-53.9% across the study area. Across the maize belt, compared with the baseline scenario, under warming of 1.5 °C, the potential sowing window would increase by 2-17 d, and under warming of 2 °C, this sowing window would increase by 4-26 d. The optimal sowing window would also be significantly extended in the regions with single-cropping systems by an average of 10 d under the 1.5 °C warming scenario and 12 d under the 2 °C warming scenario. Late-maturing cultivar achieved higher yield than early-middle maturing cultivars in all regions except the north part of Northeast China. Adjusting the sowing date by increasing growth-period precipitation contributed more (44.5%-96.7%) to yield improvements than shifting cultivars (0%-50.8%) and climate change (-53.1% to 23.0%) across all maize planting regions except in the wet southwestern parts of the maize belt. The differences among the maize planting regions in terms of high adaptation potential provide invaluable information for policymakers and stakeholders of maize production to set out optimized agricultural strategies to safeguard the supply of maize. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159337
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural InstituteNSW 2650, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South WalesNSW 2052, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest AandF University, Shaanxi, 712100, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100049, China; School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China; Crop Research Institute, Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Jinan, 250100, China
Recommended Citation:
Huang M.,Wang J.,Wang B.,et al. Optimizing sowing window and cultivar choice can boost China's maize yield under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020-01-01,15(2)