DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0764.1
论文题名: Global and regional projected changes in 100-yr subdaily, daily, and multiday precipitation extremes estimated from three large ensembles of climate simulations
作者: Martel J.-L. ; Mailhot A. ; Brissette F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2020
卷: 33, 期: 3 语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Precipitation (meteorology)
; Annual maximum precipitation
; Climate simulation
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme precipitation events
; Precipitation extremes
; Public infrastructures
; Spatial resolution
; Water infrastructure
; Climate change
; climate modeling
; design method
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; global change
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; Europe
; North America
英文摘要: Many studies have reported projected increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in a warmer future climate. These results challenge the assumption of climate stationarity, a standard hypothesis in the estimation of extreme precipitation quantiles (e.g., 100-yr return period) often used as key design criteria for many infrastructures. In this work, changes in hourly to 5-day precipitation extremes occurring between the 1980-99 and 2080-99 periods are investigated using three large ensembles (LE) of climate simulations. The first two are the global CanESM2 50-member ensemble at a 2.88 resolution and the global CESM1 40-member ensemble at a 18 resolution. The third is the regional CRCM5 50-member ensemble at a 0.118 resolution, driven at its boundaries by the 50-member CanESM2 ensemble over the northeastern North America (NNA) and Europe (EU) domains. Results indicate increases in the frequency of future extreme events, and, accordingly, a reduction of the return period of current extreme events for all tested spatial resolutions and temporal scales. Agreement between the three ensembles suggests that extreme precipitations, corresponding to the 100-yr return period over the reference period, become 4-5 (2-4) times more frequent on average for the NNA (EU) domain for daily and 5-day annual maximum precipitation. Projections by CRCM5-LE show even larger increases for subdaily precipitation extremes. Considering the life-span of many public infrastructures, these changes may have important implications on service levels and the design of many water infrastructures and for public safety, and should therefore be taken into consideration in establishing design criteria. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159393
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: École de Technologie Supérieure, Université du Québec, Quebec, Canada; Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique-Eau, Terre et EnvironnementQC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Martel J.-L.,Mailhot A.,Brissette F.. Global and regional projected changes in 100-yr subdaily, daily, and multiday precipitation extremes estimated from three large ensembles of climate simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2020-01-01,33(3)