DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05059-7
论文题名: Future projections of Indian Summer Monsoon under multiple RCPs using a high resolution global climate model multiforcing ensemble simulations: Factors contributing to future ISMR changes due to global warming
作者: Varghese S.J. ; Surendran S. ; Rajendran K. ; Kitoh A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2020
卷: 54, 期: 2020-03-04 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate projections
; Ensemble simulations
; Extreme events
; ISMR
; Representative concentration pathways
Scopus关键词: climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; global climate
; global warming
; moisture transfer
; monsoon
; rainfall
; resolution
; sea surface temperature
; water vapor
; India
英文摘要: Present-day simulations (1983–2003) of a global climate model of 60-km resolution with three deep convection schemes are analysed to find the best scheme for simulation of mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Multiforcing ensemble projections with the best scheme are carried out under multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (based on various socio-economic and technological development at the end of the century), viz. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, forced with four patterns of future sea surface temperature (SST) change for each scenario; one with mean SST changes projected by 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) models and the rest obtained from subgroups of CMIP5 models grouped through cluster analysis of tropical SST changes. These are analysed for future (2079–2099) changes in surface air temperature (T s) and rainfall which show overall increase over India except for rainfall reduction over Western Ghats. We find that combination of enhanced atmospheric water vapour content and increased vertically integrated low level moisture transport into the subcontinent as the major contributing factors for future intensification of ISMR. Extreme events show increase in warm days with significant increase in warm nights. Percentage of grid points showing increased extreme rainfall increases from low to high emission scenario. The high-resolution model enables to study projected changes over India at homogeneous zones level. The maximum increase in T s and rainfall occurs over Western Himalaya and Northeast hilly region respectively. Consistent with future increase in T s and rainfall, their extreme events also increase over all the homogeneous zones. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159402
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Multi-Scale Modelling Programme, CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore, 560037, India; Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, 201002, India; Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Varghese S.J.,Surendran S.,Rajendran K.,et al. Future projections of Indian Summer Monsoon under multiple RCPs using a high resolution global climate model multiforcing ensemble simulations: Factors contributing to future ISMR changes due to global warming[J]. Climate Dynamics,2020-01-01,54(2020-03-04)