DOI: 10.1007/s10344-019-1327-x
论文题名: Futuristic climate change scenario predicts a shrinking habitat for the African elephant (Loxodonta africana): evidence from Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe
作者: Mpakairi K.S. ; Ndaimani H. ; Tagwireyi P. ; Zvidzai M. ; Madiri T.H.
刊名: European Journal of Wildlife Research
ISSN: 16124642
出版年: 2020
卷: 66, 期: 1 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Global change
; Hwange National Park
; Isothermality
英文摘要: The earth is gradually warming from greenhouse gases (GHG) and will likely exceed the 2 °C threshold envisioned by 2050. Species range shifts and extinction are imminent from the temperature increase, especially in human-dominated landscapes. Several regions are projected to become less habitable as a result of heat stress, reduced water availability, and other secondary effects (e.g., diseases). As such, the future of the African Elephant (Loxodonta africana) remains uncertain when pressure exists from habitat loss, poaching, and temperature anomalies. In this study, we tested whether there would be any change in the 2050 potential distribution of the African elephant in the Hwange National park, Zimbabwe. We used Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) with elephant presence as response and distance from the park boundary, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest month, land cover, and annual precipitation as predictor variables. Results showed that predicted elephant habitat will likely shrink by 40% in 2050 from the potential present range of 146.76 km2. Our model on the current potential habitat of elephants was successful (AUC = 0.76) as well as for the projected habitat using RCP 8.5 data (AUC = 0.87). Our findings are amongst the first to show the likely effect of projected climate on the potential distribution of elephants in a savannah ecosystem. Our results are suggest that the current potential habitat of the elephant is sensitive to anthropogenic interferences, but a changing climate will influence elephant distribution in the future. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159480
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Zimbabwe, 635 Churchill Road, Harare, Zimbabwe; Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority, P.O. Box CY 140 Causeway, Harare, Zimbabwe
Recommended Citation:
Mpakairi K.S.,Ndaimani H.,Tagwireyi P.,et al. Futuristic climate change scenario predicts a shrinking habitat for the African elephant (Loxodonta africana): evidence from Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe[J]. European Journal of Wildlife Research,2020-01-01,66(1)