DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104695
论文题名: Spatiotemporal changes of drought characteristics and their dynamic drivers in Canada
作者: Yang Y. ; Gan T.Y. ; Tan X.
刊名: Atmospheric Research
ISSN: 1698095
出版年: 2020
卷: 232 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Canada
; Drought characteristics
; Dynamic linear model
; Large-scale climate drivers
; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Evapotranspiration
; Global warming
; K-means clustering
; Risk management
; Canada
; Drought characteristics
; Dynamic linear model
; Meteorological drought
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Risk management and mitigations
; Spatio-temporal changes
; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
; Drought
; Arctic Oscillation
; atmospheric dynamics
; Bayesian analysis
; correlation
; drought
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; evapotranspiration
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; regional climate
; spatiotemporal analysis
; standard (reference)
; Canada
英文摘要: There has been a growing concern regarding impacts of global warming on droughts, which can have devastating effects on the environment, society, and economy of nations worldwide. Drought characteristics in terms of duration, frequency, area, and severity are investigated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at seasonal (3-month) and annual (12-month) time scales for Canada over 1950–2016 derived from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS4.03 gridded data. Using k-means clustering, Canada is divided into four sub-regions, each with distinct drought characteristics. Next, the influence of climate drivers such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on regional drought variability were examined using a Bayesian Dynamic Linear (BDL) model. The results show that between 1950 and 2016 (1) there has been a prevalent drying trend in southwestern Canada during winter; (2) changes in maximum drought durations have occurred with dipolar patterns, i.e., northern Canada has experienced a longer drought duration than southern Canada; (3) drought frequency, area, and severity have predominantly shown statistically significant decreasing trends, indicating that droughts in Canada have generally become less severe; and (4) the relationships between climate anomalies and drought variability have changed over time. Droughts are generally more negatively correlated to ENSO and PDO after 1970s, but more positively correlated to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) after the 1980s. The results provide a better understanding of the characteristics of meteorological droughts in Canada, essential for improving the risk management and mitigation strategies on the impact of droughts. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159492
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 1H9, Canada; Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China
Recommended Citation:
Yang Y.,Gan T.Y.,Tan X.. Spatiotemporal changes of drought characteristics and their dynamic drivers in Canada[J]. Atmospheric Research,2020-01-01,232