globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s10531-019-01900-x
论文题名:
Will the emblematic southern conifer Araucaria angustifolia survive to climate change in Brazil?
作者: Castro M.B.; Barbosa A.C.M.C.; Pompeu P.V.; Eisenlohr P.V.; de Assis Pereira G.; Apgaua D.M.G.; Pires-Oliveira J.C.; Barbosa J.P.R.A.D.; Fontes M.A.L.; dos Santos R.M.; Tng D.Y.P.
刊名: Biodiversity and Conservation
ISSN: 9603115
出版年: 2020
卷: 29, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Brazilian pine ; Climatic envelope ; Extinction risk ; Global warming ; Potential species distribution modelling
Scopus关键词: altitude ; climate change ; coniferous tree ; extinction risk ; global warming ; habitat fragmentation ; mountain ; niche partitioning ; physiological response ; prioritization ; protected area ; survival ; vulnerability ; Brazil ; Araucaria ; Araucaria angustifolia ; Coniferophyta
英文摘要: Conifer forests dominated by Araucaria pines (Araucaria angustifolia) are emblematic of the humid forests in the southeast of Brazil, South America. However, these forests are highly fragmented and threatened by climate change. Despite the ecological and cultural importance of the dominant species (A. angustifolia), our knowledge of its climatic niche is incomplete. We aimed to understand the environmental drivers of the distribution and the climatic vulnerability of A. angustifolia in Brazil by modelling the extent of suitable climatic niches available for the species under the current climate and future climate scenarios. The potential distribution predicted by our model for the present was consistent with the real distribution of this species. However, our projections for future distributions show a decline in suitable climatic niches for the species, and a tendency for the species to be confined to high altitude mountain ranges and plateaus of south and southeast Brazil. Critically, most of the current protected areas will cease to harbor suitable climatic niches for the species. We conclude that prioritizing and expanding protected areas in important mountain ranges will be essential for protecting of the species in situ and to safeguard it from further habitat loss. Further research on population-level physiological responses of the species to climatic change and the role of biotic interactions will help optimize future modelling work. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159525
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Forest Sciences, Federal University of Lavras, PO Box 3037, Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil; Aquidauana Unit, State University of Mato Grosso do Sul, PO Box 25, Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil; State University of Mato Grosso, Campus of Alta Floresta, PO Box 324, Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso, Brazil; Centre for Tropical, Environmental, and Sustainability Sciences, College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia; Department of Biology, Federal University of Lavras, PO Box 3037, Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil; Centre for Rainforest Studies, The School for Field Studies, Yungaburra, QLD 4872, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Castro M.B.,Barbosa A.C.M.C.,Pompeu P.V.,et al. Will the emblematic southern conifer Araucaria angustifolia survive to climate change in Brazil?[J]. Biodiversity and Conservation,2020-01-01,29(2)
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