globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05102-7
论文题名:
Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa
作者: Sidibe M.; Dieppois B.; Eden J.; Mahé G.; Paturel J.-E.; Amoussou E.; Anifowose B.; Van De Wiel M.; Lawler D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2020
卷: 54, 期:2020-03-04
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Hydroclimatic variability ; Rainfall-runoff modelling ; RCP4.5 scenario ; Streamflow projections ; West and Central Africa
Scopus关键词: climate change ; climate modeling ; hydrological response ; hydrometeorology ; rainfall-runoff modeling ; streamflow ; twenty first century ; Central Africa ; West Africa
英文摘要: Climate change is expected to significantly impact on the availability of water resources in West and Central Africa through changes in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. Understanding these changes in this region, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem services, is of paramount importance. In this study, we examine the potential impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems by the mid-21st century in West and Central Africa, as well as the uncertainties in the different climate-impact modelling pathways. Simulations from nine global climate models downscaled using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA4) are evaluated and subsequently bias-corrected using a nonparametric trend-preserving quantile mapping approach. We then use two conceptual hydrological models (GR2M and IHACRES), and a regression-based model built upon multi-timescale sea surface temperatures and streamflow teleconnections, to understand hydrological processes at the subcontinental scale and provide hydrological predictions for the near-term future (2020–2050) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The results highlight a zonal contrast in future precipitation between western (dry) and eastern (wet) Sahel, and a robust signal in rising temperature, suggesting an increase in potential evapotranspiration, across the multi-model ensemble. Overall, across the region, a significant increase in discharge (~ + 5%) is expected by the mid-21st century, albeit with high uncertainties reported over most of Central Equatorial Africa inherent to climate models and gridded observation data quality. Interestingly, in this region, teleconnections-based regression models tend to be an alternative to hydrological models. © 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159544
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience (CAWR), Coventry University, Ryton Gardens, Ryton on Dunsmore, Coventry, CV8 3LG, United Kingdom; Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; HydroSciences Montpellier (HSM), IRD, Montpellier, France; Département de Géographie et Aménagement du Territoire (DGAT), Université de Parakou, Parakou, Benin; School of Energy, Construction and Environment, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Sidibe M.,Dieppois B.,Eden J.,et al. Near-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in West and Central Africa[J]. Climate Dynamics,2020-01-01,54(2020-03-04)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Sidibe M.]'s Articles
[Dieppois B.]'s Articles
[Eden J.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Sidibe M.]'s Articles
[Dieppois B.]'s Articles
[Eden J.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Sidibe M.]‘s Articles
[Dieppois B.]‘s Articles
[Eden J.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.