globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124410
论文题名:
Impact of dependence changes on the likelihood of hot extremes under drought conditions in the United States
作者: Hao Z.; Li W.; Singh V.P.; Xia Y.; Zhang X.; Hao F.
刊名: Journal of Hydrology
ISSN: 221694
出版年: 2020
卷: 581
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Compound extreme ; Conditional dependence ; Drought ; Hot extreme
Scopus关键词: Global warming ; Lead compounds ; Compound extreme ; Conditional dependence ; Conditional distribution ; Drought conditions ; Extreme temperatures ; Hot extreme ; Human society ; Standardized precipitation index ; Drought ; drought ; environmental impact ; extreme event ; global warming ; mitigation ; Midwest ; United States
英文摘要: The conditional dependence between droughts and hot extremes in many regions tends to lead to compound dry and hot extremes that may cause serious impacts on the ecosystem, human society and infrastructure. Thus, it is of particular importance to understand variations of the conditional dependence between droughts and hot extremes under global warming. We investigated changes in the dependence between droughts (characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) and hot extremes (characterized by extreme temperature) during summer for two periods 1949–1979 and 1980–2010 in the United States. The copula method was employed to construct the conditional distribution of hot extremes under drought conditions to show changed likelihoods of hot extremes. Results demonstrated increased negative dependence between droughts and hot extremes in large regions in the western, southern and northeastern U.S., leading to a higher likelihood of hot extremes conditional on droughts from the first period 1949–1979 to the recent period 1980–2010. Meanwhile, decreased negative dependence between droughts and hot extremes was shown in parts of Midwest and southeastern U.S., leading to a decreased likelihood of hot extremes conditional on droughts. Due to disastrous impacts of both droughts and hot extremes, our findings will aid mitigation efforts of extremes in the U.S. in a warmer climate. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159546
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Green Development Institute, College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, United States; I.M. System Group at Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, MD, United States

Recommended Citation:
Hao Z.,Li W.,Singh V.P.,et al. Impact of dependence changes on the likelihood of hot extremes under drought conditions in the United States[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2020-01-01,581
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