DOI: 10.3390/atmos11020191
论文题名: A boundary forcing sensitivity analysis of the West African monsoon simulated by the modele atmospherique regional
作者: Chagnaud G. ; Gallée H. ; Lebel T. ; Panthou G. ; Vischel T.
刊名: Atmosphere
ISSN: 20734433
出版年: 2020
卷: 11, 期: 2 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Precipitation
; Regional climate model
; Sensitivity analysis
; West African Monsoon
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Drought
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rain
; Sensitivity analysis
; Experimental protocols
; Global climate model
; Local populations
; Physical interpretation
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate models
; Simulated rainfall
; West African Monsoon
; Climate models
英文摘要: The rainfall regime ofWest Africa is highly variable over a large range of space and time scales. With rainfall agriculture being predominent in the region, the local population is extremely vulnerable to intraseasonal dry spells and multi-year droughts as well as to intense rainfall over small time steps. Were this variability to increase, it might render the area close from becoming unhabitable. Anticipating any change is thus crucial from both a societal and a scientific perspective. Despite continuous efforts in Global Climate Model (GCM) development, there is still no agreement on the sign of the future rainfall regime change in the region. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used for more accurate projections of future changes as well as end-user-oriented impact studies. In this study, the sensitivity of the Modele Atmospherique Regional (MAR) to homogeneous perturbations in boundary forcing air temperature and/or SST is assessed with the aim to better understand (i) the thermodynamical imprint of the recent rainfall regime changes and (ii) the impact of errors in driving data on theWest African rainfall regime simulated by an RCM. After an evaluation step where the model is proved to satisfactorily simulate the West African Monsoon (WAM), sensitivity experiments display contrasted, sizable and robust responses of the simulated rainfall regime. The rainfall responses to the boundary forcing perturbations compare in magnitude with the intrinsic model bias, giving support for such an analysis. A physical interpretation of the rainfall anomalies provides confidence in the model response consistency and shows the potential of such an experimental protocol for future climate change downscalling over this region. © 2020 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159597
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Université Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France
Recommended Citation:
Chagnaud G.,Gallée H.,Lebel T.,et al. A boundary forcing sensitivity analysis of the West African monsoon simulated by the modele atmospherique regional[J]. Atmosphere,2020-01-01,11(2)