globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-07015-8
Title:
Ambient temperature and non-accidental mortality: a time series study
Author: Deng J.; Hu X.; Xiao C.; Xu S.; Gao X.; Ma Y.; Yang J.; Wu M.; Liu X.; Ni J.; Pan F.
Source Publication: Environmental Science and Pollution Research
ISSN: 9441344
Publishing Year: 2020
Volume: 27, Issue:4
Language: 英语
Keyword: Distributed lag non-linear model ; Diurnal temperature range ; Mortality ; Temperature
Scopus Keyword: aging population ; ambient air ; atmospheric pollution ; global climate ; high temperature ; mortality ; Poisson ratio ; relative humidity ; time series analysis ; aged ; air pollutant ; article ; controlled study ; environmental temperature ; female ; global climate ; human ; humidity ; male ; mortality ; risk factor ; time series analysis
English Abstract: Under the background of global climate change, the present study aimed to evaluate the effects of daily mean temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) on the non-accidental mortality. Poisson generalized linear model (PGLM) combined with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to evaluate these effects after adjusting the relative humidity and major air pollutants. All effects were presented as relative risk (RR), with 75th percentiles of daily mean temperature and DTR compare with their lowest RRs corresponding values. Daily mean temperature was associated with the non-accidental mortality with a U-shaped curve, and the non-accidental mortality increased by 1.8% (95% CI: 0.7~3.0%) when the temperature was 24.4 °C (20 °C as the reference). Additionally, the non-accidental mortality increased by 1.4% (95% CI: 0.1~2.7%) on lag6 day when DTR was 11.3 °C (7 °C as the reference). The elderly (≥ 65 years) were more susceptible to daily mean temperature and DTR, and females were more susceptible to high DTR effect than males. Our study provides evidence that daily mean temperature and DTR are significantly associated with non-accidental mortality and have delayed effects. Both females and elderly people are vulnerable to the potential adverse effects. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
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Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159674
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province 230032, China; Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 86 Luan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province 230032, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Xincheng Road, Dongguan, Guangdong Province 523808, China

Recommended Citation:
Deng J.,Hu X.,Xiao C.,et al. Ambient temperature and non-accidental mortality: a time series study[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2020-01-01,27(4)
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