globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03811-0
论文题名:
Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China
作者: Tan C.; Yang J.; Wang X.; Qin D.; Huang B.; Chen H.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2020
卷: 100, 期:3
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Disaster risk ; Drought ; Global climate model (GCM) ; Ningxia
英文摘要: The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China (Ningxia), one of main agriculture areas in northwest China, has been severely affected by drought. Based on observed meteorological data, outputs of 20 global climate models and drought disaster data, future climate change and relevant drought hazard in the twenty-first century were projected in Ningxia, with the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5; the risks of people, crop, and agriculture economy to drought disasters are quantitatively assessed, with the application of physical vulnerability curve models, probability distribution functions and Monte Carlo simulation method. It is found that the climate in Ningxia is likely to have a warming and wetting tendency in the twenty-first century. The extent of drought hazard is likely to increase. The increase rate is greater under RCP4.5 than that under RCP2.6. In general, the risks of population, crop, and agriculture to drought disasters are likely to increase in Ningxia in the twenty-first century. The magnitude of increase is likely to reach the greatest in the immediate term (2016–2035), followed by the increase in the medium term (2046–2065), and the long term (2081–2100). In comparison with RCP2.6, the drought disaster risks under the scenario of RCP4.5 are likely to increase further in three periods of the twenty-first century. The findings of this work have potential to provide data support for drought disaster risk management and support risk-based decision-making. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
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被引频次[WOS]:6   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159748
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610207, China; Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China; State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 73000, China; Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Tan C.,Yang J.,Wang X.,et al. Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China[J]. Natural Hazards,2020-01-01,100(3)
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