globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1029/2018GB006065
论文题名:
Advancing Scientific Understanding of the Global Methane Budget in Support of the Paris Agreement
作者: Ganesan A.L.; Schwietzke S.; Poulter B.; Arnold T.; Lan X.; Rigby M.; Vogel F.R.; van der Werf G.R.; Janssens-Maenhout G.; Boesch H.; Pandey S.; Manning A.J.; Jackson R.B.; Nisbet E.G.; Manning M.R.
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 0886-6236
EISSN: 1944-9224
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:12
语种: 英语
英文关键词: abundance ; emission ; environmental policy ; fossil fuel ; hydroxyl radical ; isotopic ratio ; methane ; precision ; remote sensing ; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ; wastewater treatment ; Animalia
中文摘要: The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to keep global average temperature increases well below 2 °C of preindustrial levels in the Year 2100. Vital to its success is achieving a decrease in the abundance of atmospheric methane (CH4), the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. If this reduction is to be achieved, individual nations must make and meet reduction goals in their nationally determined contributions, with regular and independently verifiable global stock taking. Targets for the Paris Agreement have been set, and now the capability must follow to determine whether CH4 reductions are actually occurring. At present, however, there are significant limitations in the ability of scientists to quantify CH4 emissions accurately at global and national scales and to diagnose what mechanisms have altered trends in atmospheric mole fractions in the past decades. For example, in 2007, mole fractions suddenly started rising globally after a decade of almost no growth. More than a decade later, scientists are still debating the mechanisms behind this increase. This study reviews the main approaches and limitations in our current capability to diagnose the drivers of changes in atmospheric CH4 and, crucially, proposes ways to improve this capability in the coming decade. Recommendations include the following: (i) improvements to process-based models of the main sectors of CH4 emissions—proposed developments call for the expansion of tropical wetland flux measurements, bridging remote sensing products for improved measurement of wetland area and dynamics, expanding measurements of fossil fuel emissions at the facility and regional levels, expanding country-specific data on the composition of waste sent to landfill and the types of wastewater treatment systems implemented, characterizing and representing temporal profiles of crop growing seasons, implementing parameters related to ruminant emissions such as animal feed, and improving the detection of small fires associated with agriculture and deforestation; (ii) improvements to measurements of CH4 mole fraction and its isotopic variations—developments include greater vertical profiling at background sites, expanding networks of dense urban measurements with a greater focus on relatively poor countries, improving the precision of isotopic ratio measurements of 13CH4, CH3D, 14CH4, and clumped isotopes, creating isotopic reference materials for international-scale development, and expanding spatial and temporal characterization of isotopic source signatures; and (iii) improvements to inverse modeling systems to derive emissions from atmospheric measurements—advances are proposed in the areas of hydroxyl radical quantification, in systematic uncertainty quantification through validation of chemical transport models, in the use of source tracers for estimating sector-level emissions, and in the development of time and space resolved national inventories. These and other recommendations are proposed for the major areas of CH4 science with the aim of improving capability in the coming decade to quantify atmospheric CH4 budgets on the scales necessary for the success of climate policies. © 2019. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/160074
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作者单位: School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Environmental Defense Fund, Berlin, Germany; Biospheric Sciences Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; National Physical Laboratory, Teddington, United Kingdom; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Global Monitoring Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Sustainable Resources Directorate, Ispra, Italy; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom; National Centre for Earth Observation NCEO, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom; SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Utrecht, Netherlands; Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, United Kingdom; Climate Change Research Institute, School of Geography Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand

Recommended Citation:
Ganesan A.L.,Schwietzke S.,Poulter B.,et al. Advancing Scientific Understanding of the Global Methane Budget in Support of the Paris Agreement[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2019-01-01,33(12)
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