DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117605
论文题名: Estimation of the solar-induced natural variability of the tritium concentration of precipitation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere
作者: László E. ; Palcsu L. ; Leelőssy Á.
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 1352-2310
出版年: 2020
卷: 233 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Bombs (ordnance)
; Neutron flux
; Time series
; Atmospheric transport
; Cosmogenic isotopes
; Natural variability
; Secondary neutrons
; Southern Hemisphere
; Time series modeling
; Tritium concentration
; Tritium measurements
; Tritium
; anthropogenic source
; atmospheric chemistry
; atmospheric transport
; concentration (composition)
; estimation method
; Northern Hemisphere
; precipitation (climatology)
; solar radiation
; Southern Hemisphere
; tracer
; tritium
学科: Backward estimation
; Bomb-peak tritium
; SARIMAX
; Tritium concentration
中文摘要: Tritium has been long recognized as a useful tracer for the study of atmospheric transport, ocean circulation, and the global water cycle. In addition, the application of tritium measurements in various fields has grown significantly in the last few decades. Since 1963, the atmospheric test-ban treaty, bomb tritium concentrations in precipitation have significantly declined. Therefore, in the last two decades, global tritium concentration of precipitation (including anthropogenic and natural sources) has almost reached a steady-state level. The aim of this study is to estimate the temporal variation of the natural tritium concentration of precipitation during the past decades. To do this, we use a backward predicting time-series model that exploits the correlation between precipitation tritium concentration and the secondary neutron flux in the atmosphere. The measured tritium time series of 21 Northern and two Southern Hemispheric stations are used, while neutron monitor (NM) data, which are widely compared to the production rate of cosmogenic isotopes in the atmosphere, is used as an external variable for the model. Backward predicting SARIMAX statistical models are fit on the period 2001–2018 and provide estimates of the natural precipitation tritium levels for the bomb peak period 1960–2000. Evaluation of backward estimations on the 1990–2000 test period yields RMSE measures between 0.5 and 4.6 TU for four of the 23 investigated stations, pointing out locations where the neutron flux is a good predictor of the precipitation tritium concentration. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/160286
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Isotope Climatology and Environmental Research Centre (ICER), Institute for Nuclear Research, Bem tér 18/C, Debrecen, H-4026, Hungary; Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, 1117 Pázmány Péter sétány 1/A., Budapest, Hungary
Recommended Citation:
László E.,Palcsu L.,Leelőssy Á.. Estimation of the solar-induced natural variability of the tritium concentration of precipitation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2020-01-01,233