DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117538
论文题名: Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems
作者: Sampedro J. ; Waldhoff S.T. ; Van de Ven D.-J. ; Pardo G. ; Van Dingenen R. ; Arto I. ; del Prado A. ; Sanz M.J.
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 1352-2310
出版年: 2020
卷: 231 语种: 英语
学科: Agricultural systems
; Integrated assessment
; Ozone
; Yield damages
中文摘要: Current ozone (O3) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010 to 2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0–6.0, 9.8–18.8, 6.7–10.6 and 10.4–12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O3. When O3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8 B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2 B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2 B (China). © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/160337
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, United States; Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Sede Building 1, 1st Floor Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, 48940, Spain; Joint Research Centre, Energy, Transport and Climate Directorate, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA 21027, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Sampedro J.,Waldhoff S.T.,Van de Ven D.-J.,et al. Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2020-01-01,231