globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008256117
论文题名:
Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war
作者: Scherrer K.J.N.; Harrison C.S.; Heneghan R.F.; Galbraith E.; Bardeen C.G.; Coupe J.; Jägermeyr J.; Lovenduski N.S.; Luna A.; Robock A.; Stevens J.; Stevenson S.; Toon O.B.; Xia L.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:47
起始页码: 29748
结束页码: 29758
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Abrupt climate change ; Fisheries management ; Food from the ocean ; Global food security ; Nuclear winter
Scopus关键词: animal protein ; protein ; agricultural parameters ; Article ; atomic warfare ; biomass ; climate change ; environmental impact ; fishery ; food shortage ; greenhouse effect ; nutritional parameters ; priority journal ; simulation ; socioeconomics ; war exposure ; water temperature
英文摘要: Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ~30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ~70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ~43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162056
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Scherrer, K.J.N., Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain; Harrison, C.S., School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX 78578, United States, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; Heneghan, R.F., Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain; Galbraith, E., Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada; Bardeen, C.G., Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, United States; Coupe, J., Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Jägermeyr, J., Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, NY 10025, United States, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, United States, Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Lovenduski, N.S., Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; Luna, A., School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX 78578, United States; Robock, A., Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Stevens, J., School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX 78578, United States; Stevenson, S., Bren School, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93117, United States; Toon, O.B., Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, United States, Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Xia, L., Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States

Recommended Citation:
Scherrer K.J.N.,Harrison C.S.,Heneghan R.F.,et al. Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(47)
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