DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1914898117
论文题名: Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods
作者: Veh G. ; Korup O. ; Walz A.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 2 起始页码: 907
结束页码: 912
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric warming
; Bayesian modeling
; Extreme-value statistics
; GLOF
; Meltwater lakes
Scopus关键词: article
; flooding
; glacier
; Hindu
; human
; human experiment
; hydropower
; lake
; river
; warming
; environmental monitoring
; freezing
; greenhouse effect
; ice cover
; India
; theoretical model
; Tibet
; water supply
; ground water
; Environmental Monitoring
; Floods
; Freezing
; Global Warming
; Groundwater
; Ice Cover
; India
; Lakes
; Models, Theoretical
; Rivers
; Tibet
; Water Resources
英文摘要: Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5+3.7/−3.7 × 106 m3 (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600+2,000/−1,800 m3•s−1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (∼14,500 m3•s−1) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162073
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Veh, G., Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany; Korup, O., Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany, Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany; Walz, A., Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, 14476, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Veh G.,Korup O.,Walz A.. Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(2)