fresh water
; rain
; sea water
; Article
; climate change
; demography
; Greenland
; human
; ice sheet
; melting point
; migration
; population density
; population migration
; precipitation
; priority journal
; rural population
; Sahel
; surface area
; vulnerable population
; climate change
; computer simulation
; freezing
; greenhouse effect
; ice cover
; statistics and numerical data
; theoretical model
; time factor
; water flow
; Climate Change
; Computer Simulation
; Freezing
; Fresh Water
; Global Warming
; Greenland
; Humans
; Ice Cover
; Models, Theoretical
; Seawater
; Time Factors
; Water Movements
英文摘要:
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.
Defrance, D., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS, Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91141, France, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, 75005, France; Ramstein, G., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS, Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91141, France; Charbit, S., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS, Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91141, France; Vrac, M., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS, Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91141, France; Famien, A.M., Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, 75005, France, Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère, Université Félix Houphouet Boigny, 22 BP, Abidjan, 582, Cote d'Ivoire; Sultan, B., Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère, Université Félix Houphouet Boigny, 22 BP, Abidjan, 582, Cote d'Ivoire; Swingedouw, D., Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux, CNRS, Universite de Bordeaux, Pessac, 33615, France; Dumas, C., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS, Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91141, France; Gemenne, F., Cultures Environnements Arctique Représentations Climat, Observatoire de Saint-Quentin-En-Yvelines, Universite Paris-Saclay, Guyancourt, 78280, France, Hugo Observatory, Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Liège, Liège, 4000, Belgium; Alvarez-Solas, J., PalMA Group, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain; Vanderlinden, J.-P., Hugo Observatory, Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Liège, Liège, 4000, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Defrance D.,Ramstein G.,Charbit S.,et al. Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2017-01-01,114(25)