globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0705414105
论文题名:
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
作者: Lenton T.M.; Held H.; Kriegler E.; Hall J.W.; Lucht W.; Rahmstorf S.; Schellnhuber H.J.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2008
卷: 105, 期:6
起始页码: 1786
结束页码: 1793
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Climate policy ; Earth system ; Large-scale impacts ; Tipping points
Scopus关键词: arctic climate ; astronomy ; climate change ; El Nino ; greenhouse effect ; ice sheet ; priority journal ; review ; seasonal rain forest ; thermohaline circulation
英文摘要: The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points. © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162172
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Lenton, T.M., School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom; Held, H., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Kriegler, E., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890, United States; Hall, J.W., School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle NE1 7RU, United Kingdom; Lucht, W., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Rahmstorf, S., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Schellnhuber, H.J., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Lenton T.M.,Held H.,Kriegler E.,et al. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2008-01-01,105(6)
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