globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1919049117
论文题名:
A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security
作者: Jagermeyr J.; Robock A.; Elliott J.; Muller C.; Xia L.; Khabarov N.; Folberth C.; Schmid E.; Liu W.; Zabel F.; Rabin S.S.; Puma M.J.; Heslin A.; Franke J.; Foster I.; Asseng S.; Bardeen C.G.; Toon O.B.; Rosenzweig C.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:13
起始页码: 7071
结束页码: 7081
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cold temperature yield response ; Food system shock ; Global gridded crop model intercomparison (GGCMI) ; India-Pakistan conflict ; Multiple breadbasket failure
Scopus关键词: Article ; atomic warfare ; China ; climate ; controlled study ; crop ; drought ; Europe ; food availability ; food insecurity ; food security ; health impact assessment ; maize ; precipitation ; priority journal ; rice ; simulation ; solar radiation ; soybean ; temperature measurement ; United States ; volcano ; wheat ; biological model ; catering service ; climate ; food grain ; Climate ; Edible Grain ; Food Supply ; Models, Biological ; Nuclear Warfare ; Soybeans
英文摘要: A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162181
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Jagermeyr, J., Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, NY 10025, United States, Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Robock, A., Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Elliott, J., Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States; Muller, C., Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Xia, L., Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Khabarov, N., Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; Folberth, C., Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; Schmid, E., Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, 1180, Austria; Liu, W., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Universite Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France, Department Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modeling, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Duebendorf, 8600, Switzerland; Zabel, F., Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat Munchen, Munich, 80333, Germany; Rabin, S.S., Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany; Puma, M.J., Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, NY 10025, United States, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, United States; Heslin, A., Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, NY 10025, United States, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, United States; Franke, J., Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States; Foster, I., Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States, Data Science and Learning Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 60439, United States; Asseng, S., Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States; Bardeen, C.G., Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, United States; Toon, O.B., Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, United States; Rosenzweig, C., Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, NY 10025, United States, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, United States

Recommended Citation:
Jagermeyr J.,Robock A.,Elliott J.,et al. A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(13)
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