globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517056113
论文题名:
Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
作者: Kopp R.E.; Kemp A.C.; Bittermann K.; Horton B.P.; Donnelly J.P.; Gehrels W.R.; Hay C.C.; Mitrovica J.X.; Morrow E.D.; Rahmstorf S.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2016
卷: 113, 期:11
起始页码: E1434
结束页码: E1441
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate ; Common Era ; Late Holocene ; Ocean ; Sea level
Scopus关键词: Article ; carbon footprint ; climate change ; controlled study ; glacier ; global sea level ; Gulf stream ; ice cover ; priority journal ; process model ; radiative forcing ; sea level ; sediment ; temperature ; tide
英文摘要: We assess the relationship between temperature and global sealevel (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tidegauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ~0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P ≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P =0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change¡¯s Fifth Assessment Report.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162340
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Kopp, R.E., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, United States, Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States, Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Kemp, A.C., Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02115, United States; Bittermann, K., Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Horton, B.P., Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States, Sea-Level Research, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore, Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore; Donnelly, J.P., Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, United States; Gehrels, W.R., Environment Department, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, United Kingdom; Hay, C.C., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, United States, Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Mitrovica, J.X., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Morrow, E.D., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, United States, Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Rahmstorf, S., Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Kopp R.E.,Kemp A.C.,Bittermann K.,et al. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2016-01-01,113(11)
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