DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020
论文题名: Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming
作者: Kim J.-B. ; Bae D.-H.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期: 12 起始页码: 5799
结束页码: 5820
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Extreme weather
; Floods
; Global warming
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Runoff
; Extreme precipitation events
; Extreme temperatures
; Global-mean temperature
; Mean annual precipitation
; Multi-model ensemble
; Pre-industrial levels
; Seasonal variability
; Variable infiltration capacity models
; Climate models
; concentration (composition)
; extreme event
; global warming
; hydrological response
; hydrometeorology
; monsoon
; regional climate
; runoff
; spatial variation
; Asia
英文摘要: Understanding the influence of global warming on regional hydroclimatic extremes is challenging. To reduce the potential risk of extremes under future climate states, assessing the change in extreme climate events is important, especially in Asia, due to spatial variability of climate and its seasonal variability. Here, the changes in hydroclimatic extremes are assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature warming targets of 1.5 and 2.0°C above preindustrial levels based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Analyses of the subregions classified using regional climate characteristics are performed based on the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs). For runoff extremes, the hydrologic responses to 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming targets are simulated based on the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Changes in temperature extremes show increasing warm extremes and decreasing cold extremes in all climate zones with strong robustness under global warming conditions. However, the hottest extreme temperatures occur more frequently in low-latitude regions with tropical climates. Changes in mean annual precipitation and mean annual runoff and low-runoff extremes represent the large spatial variations with weak robustness based on intermodel agreements. Global warming is expected to consistently intensify maximum extreme precipitation events (usually exceeding a 10% increase in intensity under 2.0°C of warming) in all climate zones. The precipitation change patterns directly contribute to the spatial extent and magnitude of the high-runoff extremes. Regardless of regional climate characteristics and RCPs, this behavior is expected to be enhanced under the 2.0°C (compared with the 1.5°C) warming scenario and increase the likelihood of flood risk (up to 10%). More importantly, an extra 0.5°C of global warming under two RCPs will amplify the change in hydroclimatic extremes on temperature, precipitation, and runoff with strong robustness, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. The results of this study clearly show the consistent changes in regional hydroclimatic extremes related to temperature and high precipitation and suggest that hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and type of extreme variables under warmer conditions over Asia. © Author(s) 2020 Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162530
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Kim, J.-B., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, 05006, South Korea; Bae, D.-H., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, 05006, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kim J.-B.,Bae D.-H.. Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(12)