DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020
论文题名: Contrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010
作者: Menegoz M. ; Valla E. ; C. Jourdain N. ; Blanchet J. ; Beaumet J. ; Wilhelm B. ; Gallée H. ; Fettweis X. ; Morin S. ; Anquetin S.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期: 11 起始页码: 5355
结束页码: 5377
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Drying
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Autumn precipitation
; Daily precipitations
; Extreme precipitation
; Intense precipitation
; Interannual variability
; Regional climate modeling
; Spatial variability
; Winter precipitation
; Climate models
; alpine environment
; annual variation
; climate modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; spatiotemporal analysis
; Apennines
; France
; Italy
; Switzerland
; Ticino
英文摘要: Changes in precipitation over the European Alps are investigated with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) applied with a 7thinsp;km resolution over the period 1903-2010 using the reanalysis ERA-20C as forcing. A comparison with several observational datasets demonstrates that the model is able to reproduce the climatology as well as both the interannual variability and the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the European Alps. The relatively high resolution allows us to estimate precipitation at high elevations. The vertical gradient of precipitation simulated by MAR over the European Alps reaches 33%thinsp;kmspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-1/span (1.21thinsp;mmthinsp;dspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-1/spanthinsp;kmspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-1/span) in summer and 38thinsp;%thinsp;kmspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-1/span (1.15thinsp;mmthinsp;dspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-1/spanthinsp;kmspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-1/span) in winter, on average, over 1971-2008 and shows a large spatial variability. A significant (span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"ip/i/span valuethinsp;span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"lt;/spanthinsp;0.05) increase in mean winter precipitation is simulated in the northwestern Alps over 1903-2010, with changes typically reaching 20thinsp;% to 40thinsp;% per century. This increase is mainly explained by a stronger simple daily intensity index (SDII) and is associated with less-frequent but longer wet spells. A general drying is found in summer over the same period, exceeding 20thinsp;% to 30thinsp;% per century in the western plains and 40thinsp;% to 50thinsp;% per century in the southern plains surrounding the Alps but remaining much smaller (span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"lt;10/spanthinsp;%) and not significant above 1500thinsp;mthinsp;a.s.l. Below this level, the summer drying is explained by a reduction in the number of wet days, reaching 20thinsp;% per century over the northwestern part of the Alps and 30thinsp;% to 50thinsp;% per century in the southern part of the Alps. It is associated with shorter but more-frequent wet spells. The centennial trends are modulated over the last decades, with the drying occurring in the plains in winter also affecting high-altitude areas during this season and with a positive trend of autumn precipitation occurring only over the last decades all over the Alps. Maximum daily precipitation index (Rx1day) takes its highest values in autumn in both the western and the eastern parts of the southern Alps, locally reaching 50 to 70thinsp;mmthinsp;dspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-1/span on average over 1903-2010. Centennial maxima up to 250 to 300thinsp;mmthinsp;dspan classCombining double low line"inline-formula"-1/span are simulated in the southern Alps, in France and Italy, as well as in the Ticino valley in Switzerland. Over 1903-2010, seasonal Rx1day shows a general and significant increase at the annual timescale and also during the four seasons, reaching local values between 20thinsp;% and 40thinsp;% per century over large parts of the Alps and the Apennines. Trends of Rx1day are significant (span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"ip/i/span valuethinsp;span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"lt;/spanthinsp;0.05) only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years depending on the area considered. Some of these trends are nonetheless significant when computed over 1970-2010, suggesting a recent acceleration of the increase in extreme precipitation, whereas earlier periods with strong precipitation also occurred, in particular during the 1950s and 1960s./. © 2020 Royal Society of Chemistry. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162550
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Menegoz, M., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Valla, E., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; C. Jourdain, N., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Blanchet, J., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Beaumet, J., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Wilhelm, B., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Gallée, H., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France; Fettweis, X., F. R. S. - FNRS, Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liege, Liege, 4000, Belgium; Morin, S., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Universite de Toulouse, Meteo-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre d'Etudes de la Neige, Grenoble, 38000, France; Anquetin, S., Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, 38000, France
Recommended Citation:
Menegoz M.,Valla E.,C. Jourdain N.,et al. Contrasting seasonal changes in total and intense precipitation in the European Alps from 1903 to 2010[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(11)