Climate change
; Climate models
; Deforestation
; Disasters
; Groundwater
; Hydraulic conductivity
; Numerical models
; Reservoirs (water)
; Rivers
; Time series
; Anthropogenic process
; Calibration and validations
; Exceedance probability
; Hydrological properties
; Meteorological station
; Morphological characteristic
; Saturated hydraulic conductivity
; Short measurement time
; Floods
; climate change
; climate modeling
; disaster management
; flood
; flooding
; human activity
; rainfall
; return period
; river engineering
; Yalu River
英文摘要:
Accurate determination of past flooding characteristics is necessary to effectively predict the future flood disaster risk and dominant controls. However, understanding the effects of environmental forcing on past flooding frequency and magnitude is difficult owing to the deficiency of observations (data available for less than 10 % of the world's rivers) and extremely short measurement time series (<100 years). In this study, a numerical model, HYDROTREND, which generates synthetic time series of daily water discharge at a river outlet, was applied to the Yalu River to (1) reconstruct annual peak discharges over the past 1000 years and estimate flood annual exceedance probabilities and (2) identify and quantify the impacts of climate change and human activity (runoff yield induced by deforestation and dam retention) on the flooding frequency and magnitude. Climate data obtained from meteorological stations and ECHO-G climate model output, morphological characteristics (hypsometry, drainage area, river length, slope, and lapse rate), and hydrological properties (groundwater properties, canopy interception effects, cascade reservoir retention effect, and saturated hydraulic conductivity) form significant reliable model inputs. Monitored for decades, some proxies on ancient floods allow for accurate calibration and validation of numerical modeling.
Sheng, H., State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, School of Marine Sciences East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200062, China; Xu, X., School of Geography and Ocean Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Coast and Island Development, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Hua Gao, J., School of Geography and Ocean Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Coast and Island Development, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, Laboratory for Marine Geology, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266061, China; Kettner, A.J., CSDMS Integration Facility, INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0545, United States; Shi, Y., School of Geography and Ocean Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Coast and Island Development, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Xue, C., State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, School of Marine Sciences East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200062, China; Ping Wang, Y., State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, School of Marine Sciences East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200062, China; Gao, S., State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, School of Marine Sciences East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200062, China
Recommended Citation:
Sheng H.,Xu X.,Hua Gao J.,et al. Frequency and magnitude variability of Yalu River flooding: Numerical analyses for the last 1000 years[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(10)