DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-2981-2020
论文题名: Impact of downscaled rainfall biases on projected runoff changes
作者: Charles S.P. ; Chiew F.H.S. ; Potter N.J. ; Zheng H. ; Fu G. ; Zhang L.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2020
卷: 24, 期: 6 起始页码: 2981
结束页码: 2997
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate change
; Runoff
; Water supply
; Bias correction
; Catchment scale
; Hydrological simulations
; Potential impacts
; Rainfall-runoff modeling
; Runoff changes
; Temporal and spatial
; Victoria , Australia
; Rain
; catchment
; climate change
; rainfall
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; runoff
; water supply
; Australia
; Victoria [Australia]
英文摘要: Realistic projections of changes to daily rainfall frequency and magnitude, at catchment scales, are required to assess the potential impacts of climate change on regional water supply. We show that quantile-quantile mapping (QQM) bias-corrected daily rainfall from dynamically downscaled WRF simulations of current climate produce biased hydrological simulations, in a case study for the state of Victoria, Australia (237 629 km2). While the QQM bias correction can remove bias in daily rainfall distributions at each 10 km × 10 km grid point across Victoria, the GR4J rainfall-runoff model underestimates runoff when driven with QQM bias-corrected daily rainfall. We compare simulated runoff differences using bias-corrected and empirically scaled rainfall for several key water supply catchments across Victoria and discuss the implications for confidence in the magnitude of projected changes for mid-century. Our results highlight the imperative for methods that can correct for temporal and spatial biases in dynamically downscaled daily rainfall if they are to be suitable for hydrological projection. © Author(s) 2020. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162670
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Charles, S.P., CSIRO Land and Water, Floreat, WA 6148, Australia; Chiew, F.H.S., CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; Potter, N.J., CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; Zheng, H., CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; Fu, G., CSIRO Land and Water, Floreat, WA 6148, Australia; Zhang, L., CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Charles S.P.,Chiew F.H.S.,Potter N.J.,et al. Impact of downscaled rainfall biases on projected runoff changes[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(6)