On the representation of water reservoir storage and operations in large-scale hydrological models: Implications on model parameterization and climate change impact assessments
Climate change
; Climate models
; Digital storage
; Evolutionary algorithms
; Infiltration
; Parameter estimation
; Parameterization
; Risk assessment
; Watersheds
; Climate change impact assessments
; Computational framework
; Global circulation model
; Hydrological process
; Large scale hydrological model
; Model parameterization
; Multi objective evolutionary algorithms
; Variable infiltration capacity models
; Reservoirs (water)
; calibration
; climate change
; environmental assessment
; hydrological modeling
; parameterization
; reservoir
; water storage
英文摘要:
During the past decades, the increased impact of anthropogenic interventions on river basins has prompted hydrologists to develop various approaches for representing human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological and land surface models. The simulation of water reservoir storage and operations has received particular attention, owing to the ubiquitous presence of dams. Yet, little is known about (1) the effect of the representation of water reservoirs on the parameterization of hydrological models, and, therefore, (2) the risks associated with potential flaws in the calibration process. To fill in this gap, we contribute a computational framework based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, which we use to calibrate VIC's parameters. An important feature of our framework is a novel variant of VIC's routing model that allows us to simulate the storage dynamics of water reservoirs. Using the upper Mekong river basin as a case study, we calibrate two instances of VIC - with and without reservoirs. We show that both model instances have the same accuracy in reproducing daily discharges (over the period 1996-2005), a result attained by the model without reservoirs by adopting a parameterization that compensates for the absence of these infrastructures. The first implication of this flawed parameter estimation stands in a poor representation of key hydrological processes, such as surface runoff, infiltration, and baseflow. To further demonstrate the risks associated with the use of such a model, we carry out a climate change impact assessment (for the period 2050-2060), for which we use precipitation and temperature data retrieved from five global circulation models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Results show that the two model instances (with and without reservoirs) provide different projections of the minimum, maximum, and average monthly discharges. These results are consistent across both RCPs. Overall, our study reinforces the message about the correct representation of human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological models.
Duc Dang, T., Pillar of Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore University of Technology, Design, 487372, Singapore; Kamal Chowdhury, A.F.M., Pillar of Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore University of Technology, Design, 487372, Singapore; Galelli, S., Pillar of Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore University of Technology, Design, 487372, Singapore
Recommended Citation:
Duc Dang T.,Kamal Chowdhury A.F.M.,Galelli S.. On the representation of water reservoir storage and operations in large-scale hydrological models: Implications on model parameterization and climate change impact assessments[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2020-01-01,24(1)