DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-4955-2019
论文题名: Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change
作者: Gesualdo G.C. ; Oliveira P.T. ; Rodrigues D.B.B. ; Gupta H.V.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 12 起始页码: 4955
结束页码: 4968
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Digital storage
; Drought
; Floods
; Regional planning
; Risk assessment
; Stream flow
; Climate change scenarios
; Coefficient of determination
; General circulation model
; Hydrological modeling
; Interannual variability
; Metropolitan regions
; Scientific information
; Sustainable management
; Climate change
; annual variation
; assessment method
; climate change
; coping strategy
; dry season
; general circulation model
; hydrological modeling
; metropolitan area
; quantitative analysis
; streamflow
; water availability
; water management
; Brazil
; Jaguari Basin
; Sao Paulo [Brazil]
英文摘要: Climate change affects the global water cycle and has the potential to alter water availability for food-energy-water production, and for ecosystems services, on regional and local scales. An understanding of these effects is crucial for assessing future water availability, and for the development of sustainable management plans. Here, we investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). First, we calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model using daily observed data, obtaining satisfactory coefficient of determination and Kling-Gupta efficiency values for both periods. To represent possible climate change scenarios up to 2095, we consider two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and use an ensemble of future projections generated by 17 general circulation models (GCMs). These data were used to drive the hydrological model to generate projected scenarios of streamflow. We then used indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability to carry out a quantitative analysis of provision probability. Our results indicate that streamflow can be expected to exhibit increased interannual variability, significant increases in flow rate between January and March, and a 2-month extension of the hydrological dry season (currently June to September) until November. The latter includes a more than a 35 % reduction in streamflow during September through November (with a > 50 % reduction in October). Our findings indicate an increased risk of floods and droughts accompanied by an expansion of the basin critical period, and our analysis of the water security indices identifies October and November as the most vulnerable months. Overall, our analysis exposes the fragility of water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region, and provides valuable technical and scientific information that can be used to guide regional plans and strategies to cope with potential future water scarcity. © 2019 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162841
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Gesualdo, G.C., Federal University of Mato Grosso Do sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande MS, 79070-900, Brazil; Oliveira, P.T., Federal University of Mato Grosso Do sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande MS, 79070-900, Brazil; Rodrigues, D.B.B., Federal University of Mato Grosso Do sul, CxP 549, Campo Grande MS, 79070-900, Brazil; Gupta, H.V., Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Gesualdo G.C.,Oliveira P.T.,Rodrigues D.B.B.,et al. Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(12)