DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-4453-2019
论文题名: Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream flood frequency by coupling the effect of scheduling-related multivariate rainfall with an indicator of reservoir effects
作者: Xiong B. ; Xiong L. ; Xia J. ; Xu C.-Y. ; Jiang C. ; Du T.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 11 起始页码: 4453
结束页码: 4470
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks
; Flood control
; Inference engines
; Rain
; Reservoir management
; Reservoirs (water)
; Risk assessment
; Risk management
; Rivers
; Scheduling
; Weibull distribution
; Antecedent rainfall
; Distribution parameters
; Exceedance probability
; Flood frequency analysis
; Flood risk management
; Generalized extreme value
; Reservoir operation
; Reservoir storage capacity
; Floods
; antecedent conditions
; bioindicator
; flood control
; flood frequency
; frequency analysis
; hydrological regime
; multivariate analysis
; peak flow
; rainfall
; reservoir
; streamflow
; Ankang
; China
; Han River [Hubei-Shaanxi]
; Shaanxi
英文摘要: Many studies have shown that downstream flood regimes have been significantly altered by upstream reservoir operation. Reservoir effects on the downstream flow regime are normally performed by comparing the pre-dam and post-dam frequencies of certain streamflow indicators, such as floods and droughts. In this study, a rainfall-reservoir composite index (RRCI) is developed to precisely quantify reservoir impacts on downstream flood frequency under a framework of a covariate-based nonstationary flood frequency analysis using the Bayesian inference method. The RRCI is derived from a combination of both a reservoir index (RI) for measuring the effects of reservoir storage capacity and a rainfall index. More precisely, the OR joint (the type of possible joint events based on the OR operator) exceedance probability (OR-JEP) of certain scheduling-related variables selected out of five variables that describe the multiday antecedent rainfall input (MARI) is used to measure the effects of antecedent rainfall on reservoir operation. Then, the RI-dependent or RRCI-dependent distribution parameters and five distributions, the gamma, Weibull, lognormal, Gumbel, and generalized extreme value, are used to analyze the annual maximum daily flow (AMDF) of the Ankang, Huangjiagang, and Huangzhuang gauging stations of the Han River, China. A phenomenon is observed in which although most of the floods that peak downstream of reservoirs have been reduced in magnitude by upstream reservoirs, some relatively large flood events have still occurred, such as at the Huangzhuang station in 1983. The results of nonstationary flood frequency analysis show that, in comparison to the RI, the RRCI that combines both the RI and the OR-JEP resulted in a much better explanation for such phenomena of flood occurrences downstream of reservoirs. A Bayesian inference of the 100-year return level of the AMDF shows that the optimal RRCI-dependent distribution, compared to the RI-dependent one, results in relatively smaller estimated values. However, exceptions exist due to some low OR-JEP values. In addition, it provides a smaller uncertainty range. This study highlights the necessity of including antecedent rainfall effects, in addition to the effects of reservoir storage capacity, on reservoir operation to assess the reservoir effects on downstream flood frequency. This analysis can provide a more comprehensive approach for downstream flood risk management under the impacts of reservoirs. © 2019 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162869
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Xiong, B., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China; Xiong, L., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China; Xia, J., State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China; Xu, C.-Y., Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1022, Blindern, Oslo, 0315, Norway; Jiang, C., School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; Du, T., Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan, 430010, China
Recommended Citation:
Xiong B.,Xiong L.,Xia J.,et al. Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream flood frequency by coupling the effect of scheduling-related multivariate rainfall with an indicator of reservoir effects[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(11)