DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-4129-2019
论文题名: WHAT-IF: An open-source decision support tool for water infrastructure investment planning within the water-energy-food-climate nexus
作者: Payet-Burin R. ; Kromann M. ; Pereira-Cardenal S. ; Marc Strzepek K. ; Bauer-Gottwein P.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期: 10 起始页码: 4129
结束页码: 4152
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Costs
; Crops
; Decision making
; Decision support systems
; Economic and social effects
; Electric power transmission networks
; Hydroelectric power
; International trade
; Investments
; Irrigation
; Lead compounds
; Losses
; Open systems
; Reservoirs (water)
; Water management
; Climate change scenarios
; Decision support tools
; Hydro-economic optimizations
; Hydro-power development
; Investment opportunities
; Irrigation agriculture
; Socio-economic development
; Water infrastructure investments
; Climate change
; climate change
; decision support system
; development project
; economic impact
; economic planning
; hydroelectric power
; infrastructure planning
; investment
; optimization
; pollution tax
; pricing policy
; socioeconomic impact
; stakeholder
; trade-off
; uncertainty analysis
; Mozambique
; Zambezi Basin
; Zambezi Delta
英文摘要: Water infrastructure investment planning must consider the interdependencies within the water-energy-food nexus. Moreover, uncertain future climate, evolving socio-economic context, and stakeholders with conflicting interests, lead to a highly complex decision problem. Therefore, there is a need for decision support tools to objectively determine the value of investments, considering the impacts on different groups of actors, and the risks linked to uncertainties. We present a new open-source hydro-economic optimization model, incorporating in a holistic framework, representations of the water, agriculture, and power systems. The model represents the joint development of nexus-related infrastructure and policies and evaluates their economic impact, as well as the risks linked to uncertainties in future climate and socio-economic development. We apply the methodology in the Zambezi River basin, a major African basin shared by eight countries, in which multiple investment opportunities exist, including new hydropower plants, new or resized reservoirs, development of irrigation agriculture, and investments into the power grid. We show that it is crucial to consider the links between the different systems when evaluating the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development, which will ultimately influence investment decisions. We find that climate change could induce economic losses of up to USD2.3 billion per year in the current system. We show that the value of the hydropower development plan is sensitive to future fuel prices, carbon pricing policies, the capital cost of solar technologies, and climate change. Similarly, we show that the value of the irrigation development plan is sensitive to the evolution of crop yields, world market crop prices, and climate change. Finally, we evaluate the opportunity costs of restoring the natural floods in the Zambezi Delta; we find limited economic trade-offs under the current climate, but major trade-offs with irrigation and hydropower generation under the driest climate change scenario. © Author(s) 2019. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/162882
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Payet-Burin, R., Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark, COWI A/S, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark; Kromann, M., COWI A/S, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark; Pereira-Cardenal, S., COWI A/S, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark; Marc Strzepek, K., MIT, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States; Bauer-Gottwein, P., Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, 2800, Denmark
Recommended Citation:
Payet-Burin R.,Kromann M.,Pereira-Cardenal S.,et al. WHAT-IF: An open-source decision support tool for water infrastructure investment planning within the water-energy-food-climate nexus[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(10)