globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1751-2019
论文题名:
The El Niño event of 2015-2016: Climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa
作者: Rao Kolusu S.; Shamsudduha M.; Todd M.C.; Taylor R.G.; Seddon D.; Kashaigili J.J.; Ebrahim G.Y.; Cuthbert M.O.; Sorensen J.P.R.; Villholth K.G.; Macdonald A.M.; Macleod D.A.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期:3
起始页码: 1751
结束页码: 1762
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aquifers ; Atmospheric pressure ; Climatology ; Digital storage ; Drought ; Geodetic satellites ; Groundwater resources ; Potable water ; Risk perception ; Surface waters ; Uncertainty analysis ; Water conservation ; Water supply ; Anthropogenic warming ; Gravity recovery and climate experiment satellites ; Ground water recharge ; Groundwater resource management ; Groundwater storage ; Managed aquifer recharges ; Southern oscillation ; Surface water balances ; Recharging (underground waters) ; anthropogenic effect ; climate change ; drought ; El Nino ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; evapotranspiration ; GRACE ; groundwater resource ; historical record ; recharge ; return period ; satellite data ; spatiotemporal analysis ; East Africa ; Indian Ocean ; Limpopo Basin ; Southern Africa ; Tanzania
英文摘要: The impact of climate variability on groundwater storage has received limited attention despite widespread dependence on groundwater as a resource for drinking water, agriculture and industry. Here, we assess the climate anomalies that occurred over Southern Africa (SA) and East Africa, south of the Equator (EASE), during the major El Niño event of 2015-2016, and their associated impacts on groundwater storage, across scales, through analysis of in situ groundwater piezometry and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. At the continental scale, the El Niño of 2015-2016 was associated with a pronounced dipole of opposing rainfall anomalies over EASE and Southern Africa, north-south of ĝ1/412ĝ S, a characteristic pattern of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Over Southern Africa the most intense drought event in the historical record occurred, based on an analysis of the cross-scale areal intensity of surface water balance anomalies (as represented by the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index - SPEI), with an estimated return period of at least 200 years and a best estimate of 260 years. Climate risks are changing, and we estimate that anthropogenic warming only (ignoring changes to other climate variables, e.g. precipitation) has approximately doubled the risk of such an extreme SPEI drought event. These surface water balance deficits suppressed groundwater recharge, leading to a substantial groundwater storage decline indicated by both GRACE satellite and piezometric data in the Limpopo basin. Conversely, over EASE during the 2015-2016 El Niño event, anomalously wet conditions were observed with an estimated return period of ĝ1/410 years, likely moderated by the absence of a strongly positive Indian Ocean zonal mode phase. The strong but not extreme rainy season increased groundwater storage, as shown by satellite GRACE data and rising groundwater levels observed at a site in central Tanzania. We note substantial uncertainties in separating groundwater from total water storage in GRACE data and show that consistency between GRACE and piezometric estimates of groundwater storage is apparent when spatial averaging scales are comparable. These results have implications for sustainable and climate-resilient groundwater resource management, including the potential for adaptive strategies, such as managed aquifer recharge during episodic recharge events. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163002
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Rao Kolusu, S., Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QS, United Kingdom; Shamsudduha, M., Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom, Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Todd, M.C., Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, BN1 9QS, United Kingdom; Taylor, R.G., Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Seddon, D., Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Kashaigili, J.J., Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania; Ebrahim, G.Y., International Water Management Institute, Pretoria, South Africa; Cuthbert, M.O., Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place, Cardiff, CF10 3AT, United Kingdom; Sorensen, J.P.R., British Geological Survey, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Villholth, K.G., International Water Management Institute, Pretoria, South Africa; Macdonald, A.M., British Geological Survey, Lyell Centre, Research Avenue South, Edinburgh, EH14 4AP, United Kingdom; Macleod, D.A., Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Rao Kolusu S.,Shamsudduha M.,Todd M.C.,et al. The El Niño event of 2015-2016: Climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019-01-01,23(3)
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