globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-5675-2018
论文题名:
Stochastic hydrogeology's biggest hurdles analyzed and its big blind spot
作者: Rubin Y.; Chang C.-F.; Chen J.; Cucchi K.; Harken B.; Heße F.; Savoy H.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:11
起始页码: 5675
结束页码: 5695
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Environmental regulations ; Groundwater ; Hydrogeology ; Petroleum analysis ; Petroleum reservoir engineering ; External factors ; Financial incentives ; Multiple disciplines ; Quantitative metrics ; Risk and uncertainty ; Stochastic hydrogeology ; Stochastic hydrologies ; Stochastic methods ; Stochastic systems ; education ; hydrogeology ; incentive ; literature review ; petroleum engineering ; reservoir ; software ; stochasticity
英文摘要: This paper considers questions related to the adoption of stochastic methods in hydrogeology. It looks at factors affecting the adoption of stochastic methods including environmental regulations, financial incentives, higher education, and the collective feedback loop involving these factors. We begin by evaluating two previous paper series appearing in the stochastic hydrogeology literature, one in 2004 and one in 2016, and identifying the current thinking on the topic, including the perceived data needs of stochastic methods, the attitude in regulations and the court system regarding stochastic methods, education of the workforce, and the availability of software tools needed for implementing stochastic methods in practice. Comparing the state of adoption in hydrogeology to petroleum reservoir engineering allowed us to identify quantitative metrics on which to base our analysis. For impediments to the adoption of stochastic hydrology, we identified external factors as well as self-inflicted wounds. What emerges is a picture much broader than current views. Financial incentives and regulations play a major role in stalling adoption. Stochastic hydrology's blind spot is in confusing between uncertainty with risk and ignoring uncertainty. We show that stochastic hydrogeology comfortably focused on risk while ignoring uncertainty, to its own detriment and to the detriment of its potential clients. The imbalance between the treatment on risk on one hand and uncertainty on the other is shown to be common to multiple disciplines in hydrology that interface with risk and uncertainty. © 2018 Author(s).
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被引频次[WOS]:11   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163149
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Rubin, Y., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Chang, C.-F., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Chen, J., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Cucchi, K., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Harken, B., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States; Heße, F., Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig, 04318, Germany; Savoy, H., Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 94720, United States

Recommended Citation:
Rubin Y.,Chang C.-F.,Chen J.,et al. Stochastic hydrogeology's biggest hurdles analyzed and its big blind spot[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(11)
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