DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-4213-2018
论文题名: Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh
作者: Sakiur Rahman A.T.M. ; Shakil Ahmed M. ; Mohammad Adnan H. ; Kamruzzaman M. ; Abdul Khalek M. ; Hasan Mazumder Q. ; Sarwar Jahan C.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 8 起始页码: 4213
结束页码: 4228
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Discrete wavelet transforms
; Evapotranspiration
; Forecasting
; Normal distribution
; Quality control
; Time series
; Time series analysis
; Water management
; Actual evapotranspiration
; Auto-regressive integrated moving average
; Coefficient of determination
; Hydrological forecasting
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Short-term forecasting
; Water balance components
; Waterresource management
; Climate models
; air temperature
; error analysis
; forecasting method
; model validation
; performance assessment
; potential evapotranspiration
; trend analysis
; water budget
; water resource
; wavelet analysis
; Bangladesh
英文摘要: The objectives of the present study were to explore the changes in the water balance components (WBCs) by co-utilizing the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and different forms of the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and develop a wavelet denoise autoregressive integrated moving average (WD-ARIMA) model for forecasting the WBCs. The results revealed that most of the potential evapotranspiration (PET) trends (approximately 73 %) had a decreasing tendency from 1981-1982 to 2012-2013 in the western part of Bangladesh. However, most of the trends (approximately 82 %) were not statistically significant at a 5% significance level. The actual evapotranspiration (AET), annual deficit, and annual surplus also exhibited a similar tendency. The rainfall and temperature exhibited increasing trends. However, the WBCs exhibited an inverse trend, which suggested that the PET changes associated with temperature changes could not explain the change in the WBCs. Moreover, the 8-year (D3) and 16-year (D4) periodic components were generally responsible for the trends found in the original WBC data for the study area. The actual data was affected by noise, which resulted in the ARIMA model exhibiting an unsatisfactory performance. Therefore, wavelet denoising of the WBC time series was conducted to improve the performance of the ARIMA model. The quality of the denoising time series data was ensured using relevant statistical analysis. The performance of the WD-ARIMA model was assessed using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient and coefficient of determination (R2). The WD-ARIMA model exhibited very good performance, which clearly demonstrated the advantages of denoising the time series data for forecasting the WBCs. The validation results of the model revealed that the forecasted values were very close to actual values, with an acceptable mean percentage error. The residuals also followed a normal distribution. The performance and validation results indicated that models can be used for the short-term forecasting of WBCs. Further studies on different combinations of wavelet analysis are required to develop a superior model for the hydrological forecasting in the context of climate change. The findings of this study can be used to improve water resource management in the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh. © 2018 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163231
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Sakiur Rahman, A.T.M., Hydrology Lab, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto University, 2-40-1 Kurokami, Kumamoto, Japan; Shakil Ahmed, M., Department of Statistics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh; Mohammad Adnan, H., Department of Geology and Mining, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh; Kamruzzaman, M., Institute of Bangladesh Studies, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh; Abdul Khalek, M., Department of Statistics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh; Hasan Mazumder, Q., Department of Geology and Mining, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh; Sarwar Jahan, C., Department of Geology and Mining, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh
Recommended Citation:
Sakiur Rahman A.T.M.,Shakil Ahmed M.,Mohammad Adnan H.,et al. Modeling the changes in water balance components of the highly irrigated western part of Bangladesh[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(8)