DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-3777-2018
论文题名: Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event
作者: Manola I. ; Van Den Hurk B. ; De Moel H. ; Aerts J.C.J.H.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 7 起始页码: 3777
结束页码: 3788
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Floods
; Linear transformations
; Mathematical transformations
; Metadata
; Numerical models
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Risk assessment
; Dewpoint temperature
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme precipitation events
; Flood risk assessments
; Numerical weather model
; Precipitation extremes
; Precipitation intensity
; Summer precipitation
; Numerical methods
; environmental risk
; extreme event
; flood
; historical perspective
; numerical model
; precipitation intensity
; risk assessment
; temperature effect
; Netherlands
英文摘要: In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a "future weather" scenario. The first method uses an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly-observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the Pi-Td relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting numerical weather model (NWP) model HARMONIE, for both present-day and future warmer conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity changes, ranging from below the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different; due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase. The Pi-Td method is simple and time efficient compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments. © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163257
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Manola, I., Meteorology and Air Quality, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Van Den Hurk, B., Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU), Amsterdam, Netherlands, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; De Moel, H., Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU), Amsterdam, Netherlands; Aerts, J.C.J.H., Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU), Amsterdam, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Manola I.,Van Den Hurk B.,De Moel H.,et al. Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(7)