DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-3533-2018
论文题名: Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: An assessment of methods
作者: Charles S.P. ; Wang Q.J. ; Ahmad M.-U-D. ; Hashmi D. ; Schepen A. ; Podger G. ; Robertson D.E.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 6 起始页码: 3533
结束页码: 3549
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Location
; Oscillating flow
; Reservoir management
; Reservoirs (water)
; Stream flow
; Water management
; Water supply
; Automated calibration
; Bureau of meteorologies
; Probabilistic forecasts
; Snowmelt runoff model
; Southern oscillation
; Statistical approach
; Streamflow forecasting
; Streamflow prediction
; Forecasting
; antecedent conditions
; assessment method
; El Nino
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; forecasting method
; reservoir
; runoff
; seasonal variation
; snowmelt
; strategic approach
; streamflow
; water management
; water supply
; Azad Kashmir
; Indus Basin
; Mangla Dam
; Pakistan
英文摘要: Timely and skilful seasonal streamflow forecasts are used by water managers in many regions of the world for seasonal water allocation outlooks for irrigators, reservoir operations, environmental flow management, water markets and drought response strategies. In Australia, the Bayesian joint probability (BJP) statistical approach has been deployed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to provide seasonal streamflow forecasts across the country since 2010. Here we assess the BJP approach, using antecedent conditions and climate indices as predictors, to produce Kharif season (April-September) streamflow forecasts for inflow to Pakistan's two largest upper Indus Basin (UIB) water supply dams, Tarbela (on the Indus) and Mangla (on the Jhelum). For Mangla, we compare these BJP forecasts to (i) ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) from the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) and (ii) a hybrid approach using the BJP with SRM-ESP forecast means as an additional predictor. For Tarbela, we only assess BJP forecasts using antecedent and climate predictors as we did not have access to SRM for this location. Cross validation of the streamflow forecasts shows that the BJP approach using two predictors (March flow and an El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO, climate index) provides skilful probabilistic forecasts that are reliable in uncertainty spread for both Mangla and Tarbela. For Mangla, the SRM approach leads to forecasts that exhibit some bias and are unreliable in uncertainty spread, and the hybrid approach does not result in better forecast skill. Skill levels for Kharif (April-September), early Kharif (April-June) and late Kharif (July-September) BJP forecasts vary between the two locations. Forecasts for Mangla show high skill for early Kharif and moderate skill for all Kharif and late Kharif, whereas forecasts for Tarbela also show moderate skill for all Kharif and late Kharif, but low skill for early Kharif. The BJP approach is simple to apply, with small input data requirements and automated calibration and forecast generation. It offers a tool for rapid deployment at many locations across the UIB to provide probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasts that can inform Pakistan's basin water management. © 2018 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163270
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Charles, S.P., CSIRO Land and Water, Floreat, 6014, Australia; Wang, Q.J., University of Melbourne, Parkville, 3010, Australia; Ahmad, M.-U-D., CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, 2601, Australia; Hashmi, D., Water and Power Development Authority, Lahore, Pakistan; Schepen, A., CSIRO Land and Water, Dutton Park, 4102, Australia; Podger, G., CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, 2601, Australia; Robertson, D.E., CSIRO Land and Water, Clayton, 3168, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Charles S.P.,Wang Q.J.,Ahmad M.-U-D.,et al. Seasonal streamflow forecasting in the upper Indus Basin of Pakistan: An assessment of methods[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(6)