DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-3125-2018
论文题名: Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River; New Zealand)
作者: Jobst A.M. ; Kingston D.G. ; Cullen N.J. ; Schmid J.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期: 6 起始页码: 3125
结束页码: 3142
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate models
; Rivers
; Runoff
; Snow
; Stream flow
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water management
; Climate change impact
; Distributed hydrological model
; General circulation model
; Hydrological climate change
; Hydrological modelling
; Quantitative comparison
; Seasonal distributions
; Temperature increase
; Climate change
; alpine environment
; catchment
; climate change
; general circulation model
; headwater
; hydrological modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; river flow
; seasonal variation
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
; Clutha River
; New Zealand
; Otago
; South Island
英文摘要: As climate change is projected to alter both temperature and precipitation, snow-controlled mid-latitude catchments are expected to experience substantial shifts in their seasonal regime, which will have direct implications for water management. In order to provide authoritative projections of climate change impacts, the uncertainty inherent to all components of the modelling chain needs to be accounted for. This study assesses the uncertainty in potential impacts of climate change on the hydro-climate of a headwater sub-catchment of New Zealand's largest catchment (the Clutha River) using a fully distributed hydrological model (WaSiM) and unique ensemble encompassing different uncertainty sources: general circulation model (GCM), emission scenario, bias correction and snow model. The inclusion of snow models is particularly important, given that (1) they are a rarely considered aspect of uncertainty in hydrological modelling studies, and (2) snow has a considerable influence on seasonal patterns of river flow in alpine catchments such as the Clutha. Projected changes in river flow for the 2050s and 2090s encompass substantial increases in streamflow from May to October, and a decline between December and March. The dominant drivers are changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation (for the 2090s +29 to +84 % in winter) and substantial decreases in the seasonal snow storage due to temperature increase. A quantitative comparison of uncertainty identified GCM structure as the dominant contributor in the seasonal streamflow signal (44-57 %) followed by emission scenario (16-49 %), bias correction (4-22 %) and snow model (3-10 %). While these findings suggest that the role of the snow model is comparatively small, its contribution to the overall uncertainty was still found to be noticeable for winter and summer. © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163294
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Jobst, A.M., Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand; Kingston, D.G., Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand; Cullen, N.J., Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand; Schmid, J., Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University (LMU), Munich, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Jobst A.M.,Kingston D.G.,Cullen N.J.,et al. Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River; New Zealand)[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(6)