globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2891-2018
论文题名:
Hydro-stochastic interpolation coupling with the Budyko approach for prediction of mean annual runoff
作者: Qiu N.; Chen X.; Hu Q.; Liu J.; Huang R.; Gao M.
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 1027-5606
出版年: 2018
卷: 22, 期:5
起始页码: 2891
结束页码: 2901
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Forecasting ; Interpolation ; Rivers ; Runoff ; Watersheds ; Cross validation ; Determination coefficients ; External forcing ; Huaihe river basins ; Mean annual runoffs ; Prediction accuracy ; Stochastic fluctuation ; Stochastic interpolations ; Stochastic systems ; detection method ; interpolation ; kriging ; numerical method ; prediction ; river basin ; runoff ; stochasticity ; China ; Huai Basin
英文摘要: The hydro-stochastic interpolation method based on traditional block Kriging has often been used to predict mean annual runoff in river basins. A caveat in such a method is that the statistic technique provides little physical insight into relationships between the runoff and its external forcing, such as the climate and land cover. In this study, the spatial runoff is decomposed into a deterministic trend and deviations from it caused by stochastic fluctuations. The former is described by the Budyko method (Fu's equation) and the latter by stochastic interpolation. This coupled method is applied to spatially interpolate runoff in the Huaihe River basin of China. Results show that the coupled method significantly improves the prediction accuracy of the mean annual runoff. The error of the predicted runoff by the coupled method is much smaller than that from the Budyko method and the hydro-stochastic interpolation method alone. The determination coefficient for cross-validation, R2, from the coupled method is 0.87, larger than 0.81 from the Budyko method and 0.71 from the hydro-stochastic interpolation. Further comparisons indicate that the coupled method has also reduced the error in overestimating low runoff and underestimating high runoff suffered by the other two methods. These results confirm that the coupled method offers an effective and more accurate way to predict the mean annual runoff in river basins. © 2018 Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163307
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Qiu, N., State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China; Chen, X., State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China, Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China; Hu, Q., School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583, United States; Liu, J., State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China; Huang, R., State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China; Gao, M., State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098, China, Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China

Recommended Citation:
Qiu N.,Chen X.,Hu Q.,et al. Hydro-stochastic interpolation coupling with the Budyko approach for prediction of mean annual runoff[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2018-01-01,22(5)
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