globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115
论文题名:
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
作者: Steffen W.; Rockström J.; Richardson K.; Lenton T.M.; Folke C.; Liverman D.; Summerhayes C.P.; Barnosky A.D.; Cornell S.E.; Crucifix M.; Donges J.F.; Fetzer I.; Lade S.J.; Scheffer M.; Winkelmann R.; Schellnhuber H.J.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2018
卷: 115, 期:33
起始页码: 8252
结束页码: 8259
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropocene ; Biosphere feedbacks ; Climate change ; Earth system trajectories ; Tipping elements
Scopus关键词: behavior change ; biosphere ; bullock ; carbon sink ; climate change ; economic aspect ; Holocene ; human ; interglacial ; male ; nonhuman ; organization ; review ; sea level ; warming ; article
英文摘要: We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163679
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Steffen, W., Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; Rockström, J., Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden; Richardson, K., Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Natural History Museum of Denmark, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark; Lenton, T.M., Earth System Science Group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; Folke, C., Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden, Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Science, Stockholm, SE-10405, Sweden; Liverman, D., School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States; Summerhayes, C.P., Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge University, Cambridge, CB2 1ER, United Kingdom; Barnosky, A.D., Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Cornell, S.E., Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden; Crucifix, M., Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348, Belgium, Belgian National Fund of Scientific Research, Brussels, 1000, Belgium; Donges, J.F., Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden, Research Domain Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Fetzer, I., Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden; Lade, S.J., Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; Scheffer, M., Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, 6700AA, Netherlands; Winkelmann, R., Research Domain Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14469, Germany; Schellnhuber, H.J., Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden, Research Domain Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14469, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Steffen W.,Rockström J.,Richardson K.,et al. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2018-01-01,115(33)
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