globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2012002117
论文题名:
Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
作者: Li R.; Chen B.; Zhang T.; Ren Z.; Song Y.; Xiao Y.; Hou L.; Cai J.; Xu B.; Li M.; Chan K.K.Y.; Tu Y.; Yang M.; Yang J.; Liu Z.; Shen C.; Wang C.; Xu L.; Liu Q.; Bao S.; Zhang J.; Bi Y.; Bai Y.; Deng K.; Zhang W.; Huang W.; Whittington J.D.; Stenseth N.C.; Guan D.; Gong P.; Xu B.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:42
起始页码: 26151
结束页码: 26157
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate ; Disease transmission ; Hierarchical intervention network ; Human behavior ; International collaboration
Scopus关键词: Article ; climate change ; coronavirus disease 2019 ; high risk population ; human ; major clinical study ; mathematical model ; pandemic ; population density ; priority journal ; public health ; virus transmission ; Betacoronavirus ; climate ; communicable disease ; communicable disease control ; Coronavirus infection ; disease transmission ; forecasting ; global health ; international cooperation ; pandemic ; prevention and control ; procedures ; theoretical model ; travel ; virus pneumonia ; Betacoronavirus ; Climate ; Communicable Disease Control ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging ; Coronavirus Infections ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Forecasting ; Global Health ; Humans ; International Cooperation ; Models, Theoretical ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; Travel
英文摘要: Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163982
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Li, R., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom; Chen, B., Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, United States; Zhang, T., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Ren, Z., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Song, Y., Department of Urban Planning and Design, University of Hong Kong999077, Hong Kong; Xiao, Y., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Hou, L., Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Cai, J., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Xu, B., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Li, M., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Chan, K.K.Y., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Tu, Y., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Yang, M., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Yang, J., CAS Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China, CAS Center for Influenza Research and Early-warning (CASCIRE), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China, CAS-TWAS Center of Excellence for Emerging Infectious Diseases (CEEID), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Liu, Z., Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Shen, C., Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Wang, C., Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Xu, L., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Liu, Q., State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China; Bao, S., China Data Institute, Ann Arbor, MI 48108, United States; Zhang, J., School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Informatics, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, 102616, China; Bi, Y., CAS Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China, CAS Center for Influenza Research and Early-warning (CASCIRE), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China, CAS-TWAS Center of Excellence for Emerging Infectious Diseases (CEEID), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Bai, Y., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Deng, K., Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Zhang, W., Institute of High Performance Computing, Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Huang, W., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Whittington, J.D., Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, N-0316, Norway; Stenseth, N.C., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, N-0316, Norway; Guan, D., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Gong, P., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Xu, B., Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China, Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

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Li R.,Chen B.,Zhang T.,et al. Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(42)
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