globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008383117
论文题名:
Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters
作者: Mrad A.; Katul G.G.; Levia D.F.; Guswa A.J.; Boyer E.W.; Bruen M.; Carlyle-Moses D.E.; Coyte R.; Creed I.F.; Van De Giesen N.; Grasso D.; Hannah D.M.; Hudson J.E.; Humphrey V.; Iida S.; Jackson R.B.; Kumagai T.; Llorens P.; Michalzik B.; Nanko K.; Peters C.A.; Selker J.S.; Tetzlaff D.; Zalewski M.; Scanlon B.R.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:42
起始页码: 26145
结束页码: 26150
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Crop production ; Groundwater ; Hubbert curve ; Ogallala aquifer ; Peak water
Scopus关键词: ground water ; surface water ; ground water ; aquifer ; Article ; crop production ; energy cost ; forecasting ; grain ; irrigation (agriculture) ; Kansas ; Nebraska ; plant water use ; priority journal ; sustainable agriculture ; Texas ; United States ; water availability ; water conservation ; water management ; water supply ; crop ; food grain ; growth, development and aging ; irrigation (agriculture) ; procedures ; theoretical model ; Agricultural Irrigation ; Conservation of Water Resources ; Crops, Agricultural ; Edible Grain ; Groundwater ; Models, Theoretical ; Water Resources ; Water Supply
英文摘要: Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/163989
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Mrad, A., Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Katul, G.G., Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Levia, D.F., Department of Geography & Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, United States, Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, United States; Guswa, A.J., Picker Engineering Program, Smith College, Northampton, MA 01063, United States; Boyer, E.W., Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16803, United States; Bruen, M., School of Civil Engineering, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland; Carlyle-Moses, D.E., Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, BC V2C 0C8, Canada; Coyte, R., Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Creed, I.F., School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5C8, Canada; Van De Giesen, N., Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2628 CN, Netherlands; Grasso, D., Office of the Chancellor, University of Michigan-Dearborn, Dearborn, MI 48128, United States; Hannah, D.M., School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom; Hudson, J.E., Department of Geography & Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, United States; Humphrey, V., Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, United States; Iida, S., Department of Disaster Prevention, Meteorology and Hydrology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba, 305-8687, Japan; Jackson, R.B., Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States, Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Kumagai, T., Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-8657, Japan; Llorens, P., Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Barcelona, 08034, Spain; Michalzik, B., Institute of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University of Jena, Jena, 07743, Germany; Nanko, K., Department of Disaster Prevention, Meteorology and Hydrology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba, 305-8687, Japan; Peters, C.A., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Selker, J.S., Department of Biological & Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States; Tetzlaff, D., Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, 12587, Germany, Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, 1248, Germany; Zalewski, M., European Regional Center for Ecohydrology, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Lodz, 90-364, Poland, Department of Applied Ecology, University of Lodz, Lodz, 90-136, Poland; Scanlon, B.R., Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78758, United States

Recommended Citation:
Mrad A.,Katul G.G.,Levia D.F.,et al. Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(42)
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