globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1919641117
论文题名:
The 17-y spatiotemporal trend of PM2.5and its mortality burden in China
作者: Liang F.; Xiao Q.; Huang K.; Yang X.; Liu F.; Li J.; Lu X.; Liu Y.; Gu D.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:41
起始页码: 25601
结束页码: 25608
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Gap filling ; High resolution ; Long-term trend ; Mortality burden ; Satellite-based PM2.5estimation
Scopus关键词: adult ; aerosol optical depth ; all cause mortality ; Article ; China ; concentration (parameter) ; cross validation ; disease association ; disease burden ; environmental exposure ; environmental parameters ; human ; learning algorithm ; mortality ; particulate matter ; population risk ; prediction ; priority journal ; spatiotemporal analysis ; adverse event ; air pollution ; environmental exposure ; environmental monitoring ; geographic information system ; machine learning ; particulate matter ; premature mortality ; spatiotemporal analysis ; statistical model ; Adult ; Air Pollution ; China ; Environmental Exposure ; Environmental Monitoring ; Geographic Information Systems ; Humans ; Machine Learning ; Models, Statistical ; Mortality, Premature ; Particulate Matter ; Spatio-Temporal Analysis
英文摘要: Investigations on the chronic health effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure in China are limited due to the lack of long-term exposure data. Using satellite-driven models to generate spatiotemporally resolved PM2.5levels, we aimed to estimate high-resolution, long-term PM2.5and associated mortality burden in China. The multiangle implementation of atmospheric correction (MAIAC) aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 1-km resolution was employed as a primary predictor to estimate PM2.5concentrations. Imputation techniques were adopted to fill in the missing AOD retrievals and provide accurate long-term AOD aggregations. Monthly PM2.5concentrations in China from 2000 to 2016 were estimated using machine-learning approaches and used to analyze spatiotemporal trends of adult mortality attributable to PM2.5exposure. Mean coverage of AOD increased from 56 to 100% over the 17-y period, with the accuracy of long-termaverages enhanced after gap filling.Machine-learning models performed well with a random cross-validation R2 of 0.93 at the monthly level. For the time period outside the model training window, prediction R2 values were estimated to be 0.67 and 0.80 at the monthly and annual levels. Across the adult population in China, long-term PM2.5exposures accounted for a total number of 30.8 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 28.6, 33.2) million premature deaths over the 17-y period, with an annual burden ranging from 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3, 1.6) to 2.2 (95% CI: 2.1, 2.4) million. Our satellite-based techniques provide reliable long-term PM2.5estimates at a high spatial resolution, enhancing the assessment of adverse health effects and disease burden in China. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164004
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Liang, F., Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China, Department of Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China; Xiao, Q., School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Huang, K., Department of Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China; Yang, X., Department of Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China; Liu, F., Department of Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China; Li, J., Department of Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China; Lu, X., Department of Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China; Liu, Y., Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, United States; Gu, D., Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Epidemiology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, 100037, China, Department of Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China, Medical School, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China

Recommended Citation:
Liang F.,Xiao Q.,Huang K.,et al. The 17-y spatiotemporal trend of PM2.5and its mortality burden in China[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(41)
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