globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2002320117
论文题名:
Polar amplification of Pliocene climate by elevated trace gas radiative forcing
作者: Hopcroft P.O.; Ramstein G.; Pugh T.A.M.; Hunter S.J.; Murguia-Flores F.; Quiquet A.; Sun Y.; Tan N.; Valdes P.J.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:38
起始页码: 23401
结束页码: 23407
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biogeochemistry ; GCM ; Methane ; Pliocene ; Trace gas ; Wetland
Scopus关键词: methane ; organic compound ; Article ; biogeochemistry ; climate ; climate resilience ; climate warming ; computer simulation ; ecosystem ; environmental parameters ; feedback system ; image reconstruction ; mathematical model ; Middle Pliocene warm period ; molecular dynamics ; oxidation ; Pliocene ; precipitation ; priority journal ; radiative forcing ; temperature ; vegetation ; warming ; wetland
英文摘要: Warm periods in Earth's history offer opportunities to understand the dynamics of the Earth system under conditions that are similar to those expected in the near future. The Middle Pliocene warm period (MPWP), from 3.3 to 3.0 My B.P, is the most recent time when atmospheric CO2levels were as high as today. However, climate model simulations of the Pliocene underestimate highlatitude warming that has been reconstructed from fossil pollen samples and other geological archives. One possible reason for this is that enhanced non-CO2trace gas radiative forcing during the Pliocene, including from methane (CH4), has not been included in modeling. We use a suite of terrestrial biogeochemistry models forced with MPWP climate model simulations from four different climate models to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the MPWP CH4cycle, including uncertainty. We simulate an atmospheric CH4mixing ratio of 1,000 to 1,200 ppbv, which in combination with estimates of radiative forcing from N2O and O3, contributes a non-CO2radiative forcing of 0.9 Wm-2(range 0.6 to 1.1), which is 43% (range 36 to 56%) of the CO2radiative forcing used in MPWP climate simulations. This additional forcing would cause a global surface temperature increase of 0.6 to 1.0 °C, with amplified changes at high latitudes, improving agreement with geological evidence of Middle Pliocene climate. We conclude that natural trace gas feedbacks are critical for interpreting climate warmth during the Pliocene and potentially many other warm phases of the Cenezoic. These results also imply that using Pliocene CO2and temperature reconstructions alone may lead to overestimates of the fast or Charney climate sensitivity. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164027
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Hopcroft, P.O., School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom; Ramstein, G., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat À l'Énergie Atomique et Aux Énergies Alternatives-Centre National, Recherche Scientifique-Université de Saint-Quentin en Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France; Pugh, T.A.M., School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom, Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom; Hunter, S.J., School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Murguia-Flores, F., Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, 58190, Mexico; Quiquet, A., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat À l'Énergie Atomique et Aux Énergies Alternatives-Centre National, Recherche Scientifique-Université de Saint-Quentin en Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France, Chair Energy and Prosperity, Institut Louis Bachelier, Paris, 75002, France; Sun, Y., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat À l'Énergie Atomique et Aux Énergies Alternatives-Centre National, Recherche Scientifique-Université de Saint-Quentin en Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Tan, N., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat À l'Énergie Atomique et Aux Énergies Alternatives-Centre National, Recherche Scientifique-Université de Saint-Quentin en Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91191, France, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Valdes, P.J., Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Hopcroft P.O.,Ramstein G.,Pugh T.A.M.,et al. Polar amplification of Pliocene climate by elevated trace gas radiative forcing[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(38)
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