globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2001403117
论文题名:
Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)
作者: Borrelli P.; Robinson D.A.; Panagos P.; Lugato E.; Yang J.E.; Alewell C.; Wuepper D.; Montanarella L.; Ballabio C.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:36
起始页码: 21994
结束页码: 22001
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: rain ; water ; water ; Article ; climate change ; cropland ; ecosystem restoration ; environmental impact assessment ; environmental monitoring ; environmental protection ; greenhouse gas ; human ; human activities ; hydrology ; land use ; priority journal ; soil erosion ; sustainable agriculture ; trend study ; chemistry ; economics ; environmental protection ; landslide ; socioeconomics ; soil ; Climate Change ; Conservation of Natural Resources ; Environmental Monitoring ; Human Activities ; Humans ; Landslides ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Soil ; Water
英文摘要: Soil erosion is a major global soil degradation threat to land, freshwater, and oceans. Wind and water are the major drivers, with water erosion over land being the focus of this work; excluding gullying and river bank erosion. Improving knowledge of the probable future rates of soil erosion, accelerated by human activity, is important both for policy makers engaged in land use decision-making and for earth-system modelers seeking to reduce uncertainty on global predictions. Here we predict future rates of erosion by modeling change in potential global soil erosion by water using three alternative (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Global predictions rely on a high spatial resolution Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)-based semiempirical modeling approach (GloSEM). The baseline model (2015) predicts global potential soil erosion rates of 43þ-9.27 Pg yr−1, with current conservation agriculture (CA) practices estimated to reduce this by ∼5%. Our future scenarios suggest that socioeconomic developments impacting land use will either decrease (SSP1-RCP2.6–10%) or increase (SSP2-RCP4.5 +2%, SSP5-RCP8.5 +10%) water erosion by 2070. Climate projections, for all global dynamics scenarios, indicate a trend, moving toward a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion (+30 to +66%). Accepting some degrees of uncertainty, our findings provide insights into how possible future socioeconomic development will affect soil erosion by water using a globally consistent approach. This preliminary evidence seeks to inform efforts such as those of the United Nations to assess global soil erosion and inform decision makers developing national strategies for soil conservation. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:542   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164045
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Borrelli, P., Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, 4056, Switzerland, Department of Biological Environment, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, 24341, South Korea; Robinson, D.A., UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, LL57 2UW, United Kingdom; Panagos, P., European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VR), 21027, Italy; Lugato, E., European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VR), 21027, Italy; Yang, J.E., Department of Biological Environment, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, 24341, South Korea; Alewell, C., Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, 4056, Switzerland; Wuepper, D., Agricultural Economics and Policy, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Montanarella, L., European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VR), 21027, Italy; Ballabio, C., European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VR), 21027, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Borrelli P.,Robinson D.A.,Panagos P.,et al. Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(36)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Borrelli P.]'s Articles
[Robinson D.A.]'s Articles
[Panagos P.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Borrelli P.]'s Articles
[Robinson D.A.]'s Articles
[Panagos P.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Borrelli P.]‘s Articles
[Robinson D.A.]‘s Articles
[Panagos P.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.