globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2005492117
论文题名:
The motley drivers of heat and cold exposure in 21st century US cities
作者: Broadbent A.M.; Krayenhoff E.S.; Georgescu M.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:35
起始页码: 21108
结束页码: 21117
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate adaptation ; Climate change ; Cold exposure ; Heat exposure ; Urban climate
Scopus关键词: Article ; carbon footprint ; climate warming ; cold exposure ; controlled study ; driver ; evolutionary adaptation ; extreme hot weather ; human ; meteorology ; population growth ; population structure ; priority journal ; public policy ; thermal exposure ; United States ; urban area
英文摘要: We use a suite of decadal-length regional climate simulations to quantify potential changes in population-weighted heat and cold exposure in 47 US metropolitan regions during the 21st century. Our results show that population-weighted exposure to locally defined extreme heat (i.e., "population heat exposure") would increase by a factor of 12.7-29.5 under a high-intensity greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and urban development pathway. Additionally, end -of-century population cold exposure is projected to rise by a factor of 1.3-2.2, relative to start-of-century population cold exposure. We identify specific metropolitan regions in which population heat exposure would increase most markedly and characterize the relative significance of various drivers responsible for this increase. The largest absolute changes in population heat exposure during the 21st century are projected to occur in major US metropolitan regions like New York City (NY), Los Angeles (CA), Atlanta (GA), and Washington DC. The largest relative changes in population heat exposure (i.e., changes relative to start-of-century) are projected to occur in rapidly growing cities across the US Sunbelt, for example Orlando (FL), Austin (TX), Miami (FL), and Atlanta. The surge in population heat exposure across the Sunbelt is driven by concurrent GHGinduced warming and population growth which, in tandem, could strongly compound population heat exposure. Our simulations provide initial guidance to inform the prioritization of urban climate adaptation measures and policy. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164059
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Broadbent, A.M., School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, United States, Urban Climate Research Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, United States; Krayenhoff, E.S., Urban Climate Research Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, United States, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada; Georgescu, M., School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, United States, Urban Climate Research Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, United States, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, United States

Recommended Citation:
Broadbent A.M.,Krayenhoff E.S.,Georgescu M.. The motley drivers of heat and cold exposure in 21st century US cities[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(35)
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