DOI: 10.1073/PNAS.2007117117
论文题名: RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions
作者: Schwalm C.R. ; Glendon S. ; Duffy P.B.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期: 33 起始页码: 19656
结束页码: 19657
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: fossil fuel
; Article
; carbon footprint
; climate change
; degradation
; environmental policy
; global climate
; greenhouse effect
; priority journal
; radiative forcing
; representative concentration pathway
; risk assessment
; risk factor
; simulation
英文摘要: Climate simulation-based scenarios are routinely used to characterize a range of plausible climate futures. Despite some recent progress on bending the emissions curve, RCP8.5, the most aggressive scenario in assumed fossil fuel use for global climate models, will continue to serve as a useful tool for quantifying physical climate risk, especially over near- to midterm policy-relevant time horizons. Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to midcentury under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO2 emissions in 2100. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164102
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Schwalm, C.R., Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540, United States; Glendon, S., Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540, United States; Duffy, P.B., Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540, United States
Recommended Citation:
Schwalm C.R.,Glendon S.,Duffy P.B.. RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(33)