globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1922500117
论文题名:
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones
作者: Murakami H.; Delworth T.L.; Cooke W.F.; Zhao M.; Xiang B.; Hsu P.-C.
刊名: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2020
卷: 117, 期:20
起始页码: 10706
结束页码: 10714
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Detection and attribution ; Large-ensemble simulations ; Spatial pattern ; Tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: aerosol ; article ; carbon footprint ; climate change ; hurricane ; simulation ; volcano
英文摘要: Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and the effects of multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge to detect trends in tropical cyclone activity on a global scale. However, there is a distinct spatial pattern of the trends in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence on a global scale since 1980, with substantial decreases in the southern Indian Ocean and western North Pacific and increases in the North Atlantic and central Pacific. Here, using a suite of high-resolution dynamical model experiments, we show that the observed spatial pattern of trends is very unlikely to be explained entirely by underlying multidecadal internal variability; rather, external forcing such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions likely played an important role. This study demonstrates that a climatic change in terms of the global spatial distribution of tropical cyclones has already emerged in observations and may in part be attributable to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164205
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Murakami, H., Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, United States, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052, Japan; Delworth, T.L., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Cooke, W.F., Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, United States, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Zhao, M., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Xiang, B., Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, United States, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States; Hsu, P.-C., Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210044, China

Recommended Citation:
Murakami H.,Delworth T.L.,Cooke W.F.,et al. Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,117(20)
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