globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2012370118
Title:
Global evidence for ultraviolet radiation decreasing COVID-19 growth rates
Author: Carleton T.; Cornetet J.; Huybers P.; Meng K.C.; Proctor J.
Source Publication: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 0027-8424
Publishing Year: 2020
Volume: 118, Issue:1
Language: 英语
Keyword: COVID-19 ; Seasonality ; Ultraviolet radiation
English Abstract: With nearly every country combating the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), there is a need to understand how local environmental conditions may modify transmission. To date, quantifying seasonality of the disease has been limited by scarce data and the difficulty of isolating climatological variables from other drivers of transmission in observational studies. We combine a spatially resolved dataset of confirmed COVID-19 cases, composed of 3,235 regions across 173 countries, with local environmental conditions and a statistical approach developed to quantify causal effects of environmental conditions in observational data settings. We find that ultraviolet (UV) radiation has a statistically significant effect on daily COVID-19 growth rates: a SD increase in UV lowers the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases by ∼1 percentage point over the subsequent 2.5 wk, relative to an average in-sample growth rate of 13.2%. The time pattern of lagged effects peaks 9 to 11 d after UV exposure, consistent with the combined timescale of incubation, testing, and reporting. Cumulative effects of temperature and humidity are not statistically significant. Simulations illustrate how seasonal changes in UV have influenced regional patterns of COVID-19 growth rates from January to June, indicating that UV has a substantially smaller effect on the spread of the disease than social distancing policies. Furthermore, total COVID-19 seasonality has indeterminate sign for most regions during this period due to uncertain effects of other environmental variables. Our findings indicate UV exposure influences COVID-19 cases, but a comprehensive understanding of seasonality awaits further analysis. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:2   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164377
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


Affiliation: Carleton, T., Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-3151, United States; Cornetet, J., Département de Sciences Sociales, École Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, Cachan Cedex, 94235, France; Huybers, P., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Meng, K.C., Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-3151, United States, Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-3151, United States, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Proctor, J., Center for the Environment, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States, Data Science Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States

Recommended Citation:
Carleton T.,Cornetet J.,Huybers P.,et al. Global evidence for ultraviolet radiation decreasing COVID-19 growth rates[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2020-01-01,118(1)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Carleton T.]'s Articles
[Cornetet J.]'s Articles
[Huybers P.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Carleton T.]'s Articles
[Cornetet J.]'s Articles
[Huybers P.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Carleton T.]‘s Articles
[Cornetet J.]‘s Articles
[Huybers P.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.