globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-445-2020
论文题名:
Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison
作者: Andresen C.G.; Lawrence D.M.; Wilson C.J.; David McGuire A.; Koven C.; Schaefer K.; Jafarov E.; Peng S.; Chen X.; Gouttevin I.; Burke E.; Chadburn S.; Ji D.; Chen G.; Hayes D.; Zhang W.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2020
卷: 14, 期:2
起始页码: 445
结束页码: 459
语种: 英语
英文关键词: active layer ; evapotranspiration ; hydrology ; infiltration ; permafrost ; river basin ; runoff ; soil moisture ; water flux ; Arctic
英文摘要: This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164395
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE), Université Grenoble Alps and CNRS, Grenoble, France; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; IRSTEA-HHLY, Lyon, France; IRSTEA-ETNA, Grenoble, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; School of Forest Resources, University of MaineME, United States; Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, No. 5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100871, China; Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Andresen C.G.,Lawrence D.M.,Wilson C.J.,et al. Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region-a model intercomparison[J]. Cryosphere,2020-01-01,14(2)
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