globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020
论文题名:
Going with the floe: Tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations
作者: Duvivier A.K.; Derepentigny P.; Holland M.M.; Webster M.; Kay J.E.; Perovich D.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2020
卷: 14, 期:4
起始页码: 1259
结束页码: 1271
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ensemble forecasting ; freeze drying ; risk assessment ; sampling ; seasonal variation ; trajectory ; Arctic
英文摘要: In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward a younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this "new" Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) during representative "perennial" and "seasonal" time periods allows for understanding of the conditions that a floe could experience throughout the calendar year. These model tracks, put into context a single year of observations, provide guidance on how observations can optimally shape model development, and how climate models could be used in future campaign planning. The modeled floe tracks show a range of possible trajectories, though a Transpolar Drift trajectory is most likely. There is also a small but emerging possibility of high-risk tracks, including possible melt of the floe before the end of a calendar year. We find that a Lagrangian approach is essential in order to correctly compare the seasonal cycle of sea ice conditions between point-based observations and a model. Because of high variability in the melt season sea ice conditions, we recommend in situ sampling over a large range of ice conditions for a more complete understanding of how ice type and surface conditions affect the observed processes.We find that sea ice predictability emerges rapidly during the autumn freeze-up and anticipate that process-based observations during this period may help elucidate the processes leading to this change in predictability. © Author(s) 2020.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164450
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States

Recommended Citation:
Duvivier A.K.,Derepentigny P.,Holland M.M.,et al. Going with the floe: Tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations[J]. Cryosphere,2020-01-01,14(4)
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