DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021
论文题名: Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties
作者: Berdahl M. ; Leguy G. ; Lipscomb W.H. ; Urban N.M.
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2021
卷: 15, 期: 6 起始页码: 2683
结束页码: 2699
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ensemble forecasting
; ice sheet
; numerical model
; quantitative analysis
英文摘要: Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future. © 2021 Mira Berdahl et al. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/164656
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Computational Physics and Methods Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States; Computational Science Initiative, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Berdahl M.,Leguy G.,Lipscomb W.H.,et al. Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties[J]. Cryosphere,2021-01-01,15(6)